Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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732 FXUS64 KSJT 041931 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Today is another hot day across West Central Texas. As of 1 pm, temperatures are close to the same as they were 24 hours ago. Heat Index values are forecast to reach around 100 to 107, with the hottest conditions occurring over most of the Concho Valley and Big Country where a Heat Advisory continues until 8 pm tonight. Visible satellite shows sunny skies across our region, while thunderstorms have developed down in Far West Texas/Big Bend. Those storms should stay west of our forecast area today. Meanwhile, to our north, a cold front is making its way down through the TX Panhandle/Red River region. Some showers and storms may develop along the front this afternoon/early this evening, but hi-res models indicate that any activity will dissipate before reaching our northern counties. Expect another warm night, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The front will move through West Central Texas during the day Friday, reaching the I-20 corridor by around noon, and the I-10 corridor by around 7 pm. The combination of day-time instability, moisture (precipitable water values of 1.8+ inches in the vicinity of the front), and lift from the front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours, with highest chances across the central and northern parts of the forecast area. Although severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity, severe downbursts can never really be ruled out in strong Summertime thunderstorms. The high precipitable waters will result in storms being efficient rainfall producers, resulting in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For high temperatures Friday, it`ll be cooler to the north where the cold front will move through earlier (upper 80s to low 90s) and warmer south of I-20 (mid to upper 90s). && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...Rain chances will continue for the long term as upper level disturbances move through aloft, cold fronts push into the area, and Hurricane Beryl makes its approach... The cold front will eventually stall near our southern counties. Disturbances in the northwest flow aloft could produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. The front could also act as a source of convection Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could pose a threat for damaging winds. Another front is possible on Monday, leading to additional rain chances, but its southward progression through our area varies between models. As of this afternoon, The National Hurricane Center has Beryl making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border on the Gulf. The forecast track after that is more uncertain, with some models taking it up the Rio Grande a ways and others curving the remnants into east Texas. The path and speed of Beryl will have a big impact on how much rainfall we will receive. Right now, the most likely rainfall totals are in the 0.25 to 1.5 inch range (with the higher end amounts in our southeastern counties). But if we get a favorable track, we could see higher totals. Rainfall associated with Beryl could start as early as Tuesday, with rain chances continuing through the work week. The uncertainty in the path of Beryl and the front on Monday has led to a significant spread in the modeled high temperatures for Tuesday onwards. Model highs for Tuesday range anywhere from the upper 60s to the upper 90s. Right now, the NBM is keeping temperatures on the higher end, so be on the lookout for potentially cooler forecast highs once we get a better idea of Beryl`s movement. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 SCT to BKN CIGS at around 1500-2500 FT AGL between the 10Z to 16Z Fri time-frame may cause MVFR conditions across the Big Country. Confidence is too low to put BKN MVFR CIGS into 18Z ABI TAF at the moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through 18Z Fri. S to SE winds of 8-12 KT will continue through 01Z Fri, with wind speeds then lowering to around 4-8 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 90 71 90 / 10 50 30 30 San Angelo 77 98 74 95 / 0 40 30 40 Junction 74 99 74 95 / 0 20 20 30 Brownwood 76 93 72 90 / 10 50 20 30 Sweetwater 75 89 71 92 / 10 50 30 30 Ozona 74 97 73 93 / 0 20 20 20 Brady 75 95 73 91 / 0 30 20 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher- Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...SJH LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...SJH