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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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842 FXUS64 KSJT 040511 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Hot temperatures continue into Independence Day. Temperatures may drop a degree or two for the 4th, but dew points and heat indices increase back up near to the heat advisory 105 degrees across portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Heat advisories may be issued for Thursday afternoon/evening...later this evening or overnight. Gusty south winds are again expected for Thursday, though wind speeds will be a couple mph lower. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A much needed pattern change is expected starting Friday as a trough moves across the north central United States. A cold front will push south into the area starting early Friday, bringing cooler temperatures and rain chances. High temperatures on Friday could be as low as the upper 80s in the Big Country and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. The front, along with a few upper level disturbances, could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into Sunday. Precipitation amounts look to stay generally below half an inch for Friday and the weekend, but we could see higher amounts under isolated thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the rest of the long term for both precipitation and temperatures. As of this afternoon, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in Mexico, just south of Texas. However, it is still in the realm of possibilities that Beryl could turn further north into Texas. The exact path of Hurricane Beryl will have a significant effect on rainfall amounts, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. The good news is, it looks like we`ll have a slight chance of rain for next week even if Beryl takes the southern track rather than the more northern one. Northwest flow aloft is expected to set up over the area for the start of next week, allowing for upper-level disturbances to move over the area, leading to low-end rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. South winds will increase to 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts, by mid morning. Expect a gradual decrease in winds by mid afternoon. Winds this evening will become south to southeast and drop below 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 104 79 102 76 / 0 0 0 20 San Angelo 105 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 104 78 103 75 / 0 0 10 30 Ozona 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for Coke-Fisher-Haskell- Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...Daniels