636
FXUS64 KSHV 061125
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

High pressure is back across our Four-States with a 1017mb core
in KN drifting toward MO before lunchtime. Light NW winds are
edging our dew points down into the lower 70s, but the real drier
air is having a tough time with lots of calm over E OK, so we are
just not seeing much advection at this time. However a range of
60 dew points are nearly along, but north of I-30. So happy to see
another front in the wake of much needed rainfall. We had some
big totals due to slow movement and mergers and most locales along
and east of I-49 had some decent coinage for totals. East TX had
some big numbers near Marshall and yet farther west, the
convection eluded many ASOS sites with many still zeroed out.

However that will be a changing` in light of TS Beryl`s new track,
more on this in the long term. The best news is it looks like we
can hang up the heat headlines for a while, with some near 105
mentions today in our SE parishes. More in and out across the 7
day period, but not widespread at all. Highs today will see lower
90s and lower 100 HX calcs. Winds will not mix as well as
yesterday, but thankfully our dew points are siting better. Skies
will continue to thin and we still have the chance for more
convection with heating later this afternoon, mainly along and
south of I-20. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s on average
and then highs tomorrow will be warmer with less cloudiness early,
but more a chance for rainfall with coverage unfolding as our
front lifts back northward Sunday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

We will continue to see more clouds again helping to umbrella the
July sunshine on Monday. Lows will trend back into the mid 70 and
highs still low to mid 90s early in the new week. The chance for
rain is looking good as Beryl blooms again over the undisturbed
warm bath in the northern and central Gulf waters. The hurricane
strength yesterday appears to have run into a large of dry air
nestled in the Bay of Campeche which forced a solid right turn.
Right now, the latest is 50KT wind or 60 mph and moving W/NW at
11KT/13mph.

This puts us in the favorable quad to see good rainfall, but some
potential tornadic threat along with, as the track depicts
Depression status in E TX on Tuesday and then S AR on Wednesday.
Suffice it to say, 80s for highs will be likely with limited if
any sun at times. Lows will keep muggy warm, but at least a break
from the hot and dry of late. The SPC day 3 has us Marginal and
the coastal bend Slight for now. The WPC has the ERO days 4 and 5
edging Marginal and then Slight into our midst for more early
certainty of this coming rainfall. So we will continue to closely
monitor, email and special brief this early season Atlantic
cyclone`s progress. Much more to come as the storm regains
strength and lumbers inland early Monday near Victoria, TX. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

With the exception of possible tempo MVFR ceilings at the start of
the forecast period across LFK near daybreak, mainly VFR
conditions to prevail across area terminals through the TAF period
ending 07/12Z. VCTS conditions may be possible near MLU/LFK this
afternoon. Otherwise, light northeast winds to increase to
around 4 to 7 knots today behind a weak frontal boundary.
Otherwise, light and variable winds expected after 07/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  93  76 /  30  10  50  30
MLU  91  72  91  75 /  40  10  40  20
DEQ  93  67  93  70 /   0   0  20  40
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  10   0  30  30
ELD  92  69  92  73 /  10  10  30  20
TYR  92  74  94  76 /  30  10  40  30
GGG  93  73  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
LFK  93  75  93  75 /  70  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05