371
FXUS64 KSHV 061747 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Once again, morning warming looks rather more aggressive than
guidance initially depicted, already reaching 90 degrees at SHV
before 16Z. Have elected to bump up afternoon highs 2-3 degrees,
placing some sites in the middle 90s, especially between the I-30
and I-20 corridors. Precise values will hinge on developing cloud
cover and convection, much in the same way as yesterday, where
sites seeing isolated pockets of persistent sunshine may
overperform again in the temperature department. Otherwise, the
forecast package looks on track. Ingested the most recent several
hours of temperature and dew point obs and interpolated through
00Z.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Aside from MVFR cigs across portions of Deep E TX early this
afternoon, VFR conditions are expected through much if not all of
the 06/18Z TAF period. Cu cigs have developed early this afternoon
generally along and S of the I-20 corridor, but should eventually
scatter out by mid to late afternoon, as slightly drier air
continues to mix SW in wake of a weak sfc front that has settled S
to the I-10 corridor of SE TX/S LA. Isolated convection can not be
ruled out this afternoon over Cntrl LA and possibly portions of
Deep E TX, but low confidence precludes mention in the LFK
terminal attm, and thus have removed VCTS mention here. The cu
field should mostly diminish around or shortly after 00Z Sunday,
with areas of cirrus persisting overnight over Deep E TX/N LA/Srn
AR. Some areas of stratocu may develop by or shortly before 12Z
Sunday over portions of Deep E/ECntrl TX, but have only maintained
IFR/low MVFR cigs at LFK, before a slow improvement in cigs
commences by mid/late morning. A scattered cu field should develop
by late morning/early afternoon elsewhere, as it spreads back N as
the sfc front to our S washes out. ENE winds 5-8kts this afternoon
will become Light SE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  93  76 /  30  10  50  30
MLU  93  72  91  75 /  40  10  40  20
DEQ  93  67  93  70 /  10   0  20  40
TXK  95  71  94  73 /  10   0  30  30
ELD  92  69  92  73 /  10  10  30  20
TYR  94  74  94  76 /  30  10  40  30
GGG  95  73  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
LFK  94  75  93  75 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15