202
FXUS64 KSHV 070102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
802 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

This afternoon has yet proved less active than yesterday in terms of
convection, and what storms may manage to develop across our
southern zones should diminish quickly with the loss of daytime
heating. Current projections suggest a respite from renewed
development through the remainder of the night, with calming
conditions and dropping temperatures allowing for more widespread
development of fog in the pre-dawn hours. At this time coverage
looks patchy enough to not require products, but any early commuters
may wish to take caution. Lows will trend cooler tonight, reaching
the upper 60s north and middle 70s south of the I-20 corridor.

Tomorrow will follow the trend established by the past two days,
with development of scattered convection late in the day,
encompassing the southeastern half of the ArkLaTex at its peak and
dissipating quickly after sundown. The last few days have
demonstrated effective daytime heating in the morning and early
afternoon before convection lights up, this following NBM guidance
of middle 90s across the region Sunday afternoon.

Overnight Sunday into Monday, we may see two areas of showers and
storms begin to impact the Four State Region. From the southwest in
the Lufkin area of deep east Texas, isolated showers with the
possible embedded storm are possible as the tropical moisture nudged
north in advance of Beryl begins to reach us. Meanwhile, a complex
of storms will advance from the northwest, bringing impacts possibly
towards the I-30 corridor in the predawn hours. Temperatures look to
drop into the lower 70s north to upper 70s south by sunrise Monday.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The subtleties of how the incoming round of convection from the
north will interact with the tropical moisture advancing from the
south on Monday remains to be seen, but suffice to say a
substantively rainy week is in store for the ArkLaTex. Rain chances
look to begin by lunchtime Monday at the latest, continuing largely
uninterrupted through at least late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The bottom line for the ArkLaTex is that we are closely monitoring
Tropical Storm Beryl, as the latest model runs continue to indicate
an eastward shift in the track, arcing to the northeast upon its
landfall, bringing impacts to the ArkLaTex early in the week. When
combined with the existing moisture in the form of convection being
stirred up by our pseudo-stationary boundary, this will bring with
it the possibility of flash flooding across much of the Four State
Region, especially east Texas and into north Louisiana and southern
Arkansas, with the WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Monday and
Tuesday including the majority of the region in a Slight Risk, and
further upgrades are not out of the question. Flash flooding poses a
more likely concern to the region than severe weather, but the
latter still cannot be ruled out, contingent on the structure,
organization and coverage expanse of Beryl as it treks
northeastward.

The latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have Beryl
at Tropical Depression intensity by the time it reaches the
ArkLaTex, tracking the center of the cyclone across our region
overnight Tuesday into the early hours Wednesday as it continues to
lose its organization and gets picked up by the upper level trough
over the Plains and Midwest. This troughing looks to remain very
much in place due north as ridging over the Intermountain West and
ridging over the Atlantic coast help hold it in place, continuing to
deluge the ArkLaTex with daily chances for showers and storms
through next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout if
not below average, with highs in the lower 90s possible only
climbing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, while lows
remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s, with a possible drying and
warming trend by the end of the workweek.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the 07/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail this
period as drier post-frontal air continues to work southward into
our airspace. The one exception will likely be at LKF where patchy
MVFR/IFR may return closer to daybreak. Otherwise, look for cloud
cover to gradually increase through the day on Sunday as TS Beryl
approaches the middle Texas coast with scattered convection moving
into our southern airspace by the early afternoon. This convection
may shift as far north as I-20 by mid to late afternoon so have
included VCTS late in the period at all sites except for TXK/ELD.
Otherwise, except light E/NE winds to trend more E/SE through the
period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  95  79  91 /  10  30  10  60
MLU  74  92  75  92 /  10  40  10  40
DEQ  68  93  70  88 /   0  10  20  60
TXK  72  96  75  92 /   0  20  20  60
ELD  70  93  74  91 /   0  30  10  50
TYR  75  95  76  89 /   0  20  10  70
GGG  74  95  76  89 /   0  20  10  60
LFK  74  95  76  87 /  20  40  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19