619
FXUS64 KSHV 070625
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
125 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Shower coverage has dropped off early and delaying fog til 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A warm evening with some debris clouds for a few hours yet, but a
big diurnal drive today with little if anything left convection
wise at this time. We will bow out a little early on any further
widespread slight chances and delay the fog until clearer skies
reside overhead. Air temps are ranging all through the 80s with
light SE winds. Many sites are calm too, and running the coolest.
Looking at dew points, our overnight low grid is looking in pretty
good shape with upper 60s north and low to mid 70s elsewhere
across the ArkLaTex. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The subtleties of how the incoming round of convection from the
north will interact with the tropical moisture advancing from the
south on Monday remains to be seen, but suffice to say a
substantively rainy week is in store for the ArkLaTex. Rain chances
look to begin by lunchtime Monday at the latest, continuing largely
uninterrupted through at least late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The bottom line for the ArkLaTex is that we are closely monitoring
Tropical Storm Beryl, as the latest model runs continue to indicate
an eastward shift in the track, arcing to the northeast upon its
landfall, bringing impacts to the ArkLaTex early in the week. When
combined with the existing moisture in the form of convection being
stirred up by our pseudo-stationary boundary, this will bring with
it the possibility of flash flooding across much of the Four State
Region, especially east Texas and into north Louisiana and southern
Arkansas, with the WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Monday and
Tuesday including the majority of the region in a Slight Risk, and
further upgrades are not out of the question. Flash flooding poses a
more likely concern to the region than severe weather, but the
latter still cannot be ruled out, contingent on the structure,
organization and coverage expanse of Beryl as it treks
northeastward.

The latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have Beryl
at Tropical Depression intensity by the time it reaches the
ArkLaTex, tracking the center of the cyclone across our region
overnight Tuesday into the early hours Wednesday as it continues to
lose its organization and gets picked up by the upper level trough
over the Plains and Midwest. This troughing looks to remain very
much in place due north as ridging over the Intermountain West and
ridging over the Atlantic coast help hold it in place, continuing to
deluge the ArkLaTex with daily chances for showers and storms
through next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout if
not below average, with highs in the lower 90s possible only
climbing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, while lows
remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s, with a possible drying and
warming trend by the end of the workweek.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the 07/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail this
period with one exception likely at LFK where patchy MVFR/IFR cigs
should return closer to daybreak. Otherwise, look for multi-layered
cloud cover to gradually increase throughout the day as TS Beryl
approaches the middle Texas coast with scattered convection moving
into our southern airspace by the early afternoon. This convection
may shift as far north as I-30 by late afternoon or early evening
so have included VCTS late in the period at all sites. Otherwise,
expect light E/NE winds to trend more E/SE through the period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  79  90  75 /  30  20  70  70
MLU  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  50
DEQ  93  71  86  68 /  10  50  70  60
TXK  96  75  90  71 /  20  50  60  70
ELD  93  74  89  70 /  30  30  60  60
TYR  95  76  87  71 /  20  20  80  70
GGG  95  76  87  72 /  30  20  80  70
LFK  94  76  85  72 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19