570
FXUS64 KSHV 070701
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
201 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Instability will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front
to the north and tropical cyclone Beryl that is advancing
northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough across
the Southern Plains will allow for sufficient mixing to limit high
temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Could see an enhanced sea-
breeze boundary lifting north this afternoon which could allow for
scattered convection mainly across east and northeast Texas as
well as north Louisiana.

Beryl to make landfall overnight tonight across the mid to upper
Texas coast. The combination of the approaching tropical cyclone
interacting with the upper-trough and surface boundary will drive
rain chances to likely and near categorical levels across the
ArkLaTex Sunday night into Monday.

Increased shear along the eastern edge of the cyclone as it moves
north across east and northeast Texas will allow for an increased
tornado threat across much of the ArkLaTex on Monday.
Additionally, heavy rainfall with totals from 2 to 4 inches may be
possible across mainly east and northeast Texas as well as
southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the center of circulation
with lesser values elsewhere. Otherwise, with increased cloud
cover and rainfall, temperatures will be much cooler with highs on
Monday in the low to mid 80s along the path of Beryl. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A stagnant broad upper-level trough will remain anchored across
the mid-conus through much of the work-week. A weak lingering
surface boundary in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex will support
widely-scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the region each day. Additionally, a cooler
and drier airmass north of the frontal boundary will allow for
slightly cooler temperatures with highs through much of the work-
week in the mid to upper 80s, gradually increasing into the lower
90s by Friday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across the southern
CONUS. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected during the
weekend with highs creeping into the mid to upper 90s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the 07/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail this
period as drier post-frontal air continues to work southward into
our airspace. The one exception will likely be at LKF where patchy
MVFR/IFR may return closer to daybreak. Otherwise, look for cloud
cover to gradually increase through the day on Sunday as TS Beryl
approaches the middle Texas coast with scattered convection moving
into our southern airspace by the early afternoon. This convection
may shift as far north as I-20 by mid to late afternoon so have
included VCTS late in the period at all sites except for TXK/ELD.
Otherwise, except light E/NE winds to trend more E/SE through the
period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  79  90  75 /  30  20  70  70
MLU  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  50
DEQ  93  71  86  68 /  10  50  70  60
TXK  96  75  90  71 /  20  50  60  70
ELD  93  74  89  70 /  30  30  60  60
TYR  95  76  87  71 /  20  20  80  70
GGG  95  76  87  72 /  30  20  80  70
LFK  94  76  85  72 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...19