869
FXUS64 KSHV 071958
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
258 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Flood Watch 5849:

The latest QPF guidance supports the issuance of a Flood Watch for
our Oklahoma and Texas counties, together with adjacent portions of
extreme southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana. Based on the
current timing projections, this Watch will be in effect from 12Z
Monday through 20Z Tuesday.

Overview/Near-term:

As of the 19Z hour Sunday multiple areas of precipitation are
impacting or about to impact the ArkLaTex. A remnant band of light
precip from the morning drifts north from Louisiana into arkansas,
while a more robust band has taken shape, tracking north across the
I-20 corridor of east Texas. Meanwhile, the decaying remnants of this
morning`s storms in central Oklahoma may bring some showers to
McCurtain county shortly. Finally, a band of more widespread heavy
rainfall is moving north into deep east Texas, with a possibility of
producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph as it also tracks
north west towards I-20. Impacts from these rounds of precip will
continue through the evening, tapering off at intermittent intervals
overnight, becoming more widespread into tomorrow morning as the
outer bands of Beryl begin to more persistently impact the ArkLaTex.

Hazards:

Monday will see simultaneous and overlapping hazards presented to
much of the region, in the form of severe weather and flash
flooding. The training rain bands will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall for hours at a time for locations across deep
east and east Texas. Meanwhile, a large north-south swath of the
ArkLaTex, approximately centered on the I-49 corridor has been
outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather. As Beryl approaches,
bands within the front right quadrant (i.e. on the southeastern side
of the cyclone) will be potentially capable of producing brief
spinup tornadoes. Additionally, damaging severe winds may also pose
a threat.

Timing:

The latest guidance distributed by the NHC tracks the center of
Beryl into the ArkLaTex from the southwest during the day Monday,
approaching the Three State Point near daybreak Tuesday and exiting
the area to the northeast during the day Tuesday. Keep in mind, this
is meant to provide a general idea of the storm`s movement, not a
precise timetable. Based on this guidance, areawide rainfall chances
will continue solidly through the end of the short term forecast
period (12Z Tuesday).

Temperatures:

Tonight`s lows will drop into the low to middle 70s for most sites,
climbing only into the middle to upper 80s during the day tomorrow
across east Texas, with a few lower 90s in central to eastern
Louisiana. Aided by the rain cooling effects and wind shift
introduced by Beryl, lows on Tuesday morning may manage to drop into
the upper 60s northwest to middle 70s southeast.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

By daybreak Tuesday, the center of Beryl, to the extent the storm
remains organized, should be roughly centered over the Three State
Point of the ArkLaTex, advancing with relative speed north and east
into Arkansas through the course of the day, as it looks to get
picked up by the upper level troughing digging south over the
Ozarks, which will help speed its departure. Guidance continues to
carry areawide rainfall chances through 00Z Wednesday, but depending
on the speed Beryl achieves, this activity and the needs for its
associated Flood watch may come to an end somewhat sooner.

After Beryl`s rainfall concludes, the ArkLaTex looks to remain
relatively dry- here meaning no additional rainfall- overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the only PoPs Wednesday looking to be
some scattered thunderstorms south of US-84. This will mark the
beginning of a somewhat unsettled but rather more typical pattern of
July in the ArkLaTex, with afternoon convection across our southern
third, usually of the sea breeze variety, between 18Z and 00Z,
coming to an end through the evening, with conditions remaining
quiet overnight and through the following morning, a regime which
looks to still be in play through the end of the long term forecast
period next weekend.

Temperatures on Tuesday will still be mitigated by Beryl`s
rainfall, ranging from the lower 80s north to upper 80s south, with
the following days exhibiting a rapid return to seasonable and above
average temperatures, with areawide highs in the low to mid 90s by
the end of the week, and possible further warming into next weekend.
Lows will trend accordingly, climbing from the 60s and lower 70s
Wednesday back into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and much of tonight,
before conditions begin to deteriorate with the landfall of TS
Beryl along the middle TX coast Monday morning. Cu cigs have
developed early this afternoon across much of E TX, with the cu
field more scattered elsewhere, with scattered convection having
recently developed SE of TYR, which will gradually spread NW
through mid-afternoon. More concentrated convection associated
with the outer bands of Beryl have shifted NW into Deep E TX, and
will affect LFK by or shortly before 20Z, with additional
scattered convection expected to develop and spread N to the I-20
terminals of E TX/N LA between 23-02Z. Gusty winds to near 30kts,
reduced vsbys, and MVFR cigs will be possible in/near the
convection before diminishing, with AC/cirrus cigs lingering
through the evening and overnight hours. However, MVFR cigs are
expected to develop after 06Z Monday over Deep E TX/WCntrl LA,
before developing farther N to the TYR/GGG/SHV terminals by/after
12Z. Others areas of stratocu should develop between 12-15Z across
the remainder of the region, gradually lifting through midday. The
convective bands surrounding the center of Beryl should begin
affecting LFK between 12-16Z, where RA/vsby reductions were added.
Did insert VCSH mention for TYR/GGG by 15-16Z, with the more
impactful cigs/vsbys reductions in RA affecting SHV by/after 18Z.
ESE winds 5-10kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5kts
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  87  74  88 /  30  80  80  40
MLU  75  92  75  90 /  40  50  60  50
DEQ  72  84  67  82 /  40  80  80  60
TXK  76  87  70  85 /  40  80  80  50
ELD  73  89  70  83 /  30  60  70  60
TYR  76  83  70  88 /  30  90  70  30
GGG  75  83  70  87 /  30  90  80  30
LFK  75  82  71  89 /  30  90  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     LAZ001-002-010.

OK...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15