364
FXUS64 KSHV 081150
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl is beginning to move inland across the mid-Texas
coast this morning. Beryl will move north and gradually weaken
over southeast Texas. As it weakens and the wind field expands,
much of the ArkLaTex will experience wind speeds exceeding 20 mph
with portions of Deep East Texas possibly bordering on Tropical
Storm force wind speeds of near 40 mph. Because of the short-lived
nature of these higher winds will handle the elevated wind speeds
with a Wind Advisory based on coordination with neighbors.

Storm total QPF with Beryl remains elevated across mainly east and
northeast Texas as well as southwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma mainly along the path of the central core of Beryl. Some
locations could experience rainfall totals as high as 6 inches
across portions of northeast Texas with isolated higher amounts.
Ongoing Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to add Nevada county.
Otherwise, no additional adjustments to the Flash Flood Watch
needed at this time.

Increased shear along the northeast quadrant of Beryl within an
unstable airmass will support a heightened tornado threat across
much of the ArkLaTex today, mainly during the afternoon into the
early evening hours.

Further east, across portions of north Louisiana, a combination of
high humidity values and highs in the lower 90s could drive heat
index values to near 105 degrees. However, not expecting
conditions to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time.

Beryl is forecast to shift northeast across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley late Monday night into Tuesday with conditions gradually
improving thereafter. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A fairly stagnant setup expected through much of the long-term
period characterized by a broad upper-level trough firmly
established across the central CONUS and an upper-ridge across the
Gulf of Mexico. The upper-trough will support diurnally driven
afternoon convection each day across mainly north Louisiana and
east Texas in association with a weak frontal boundary along the
northern Gulf Coast. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico will allow for temperatures to climb
into the upper 90s along and south of I-20 by late in the work
week into the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures in the
lower 90s across Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the 08/12Z TAF update, Hurricane Beryl`s inland track into the
airspace will continue to produce multiple impacts to vis/cigs
through the period. VCSH/-RA has already began for KLFK with more
widespread precipitation and MVFR/IFR vis/cigs degradations
arriving by 08/21Z through the end of the period. WS groups will
begin by 08/22Z and continue with the core circulation of Beryl as
it crosses over western terminals, also through the end of the
period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  74  87  72 /  90  90  40  10
MLU  92  75  89  70 /  30  90  40  10
DEQ  84  67  82  64 /  90  90  70  10
TXK  87  71  85  68 /  80 100  60  10
ELD  88  70  82  66 /  70  90  60  10
TYR  83  70  87  70 / 100  90  20  10
GGG  83  70  87  69 /  90 100  30  10
LFK  82  71  89  70 / 100  90  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-
     071.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ001-002-010.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>013-017-
     018.

OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ077.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16