131
FXUS64 KSHV 081814
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
114 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Storm Beryl continues to push towards our region this
area. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are starting to
increase across our region even well out ahead of the main
circulation. As Beryl continues to move through our region, our
tornado threat will increase along with the potential for Flash
Flooding. A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the region
through 10:00 PM this evening. No other major changes were made to
the forecast as all eyes are really focused on the incoming storm.
/33/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Hurricane Beryl is beginning to move inland across the mid-Texas
coast this morning. Beryl will move north and gradually weaken
over southeast Texas. As it weakens and the wind field expands,
much of the ArkLaTex will experience wind speeds exceeding 20 mph
with portions of Deep East Texas possibly bordering on Tropical
Storm force wind speeds of near 40 mph. Because of the short-lived
nature of these higher winds will handle the elevated wind speeds
with a Wind Advisory based on coordination with neighbors.

Storm total QPF with Beryl remains elevated across mainly east and
northeast Texas as well as southwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma mainly along the path of the central core of Beryl. Some
locations could experience rainfall totals as high as 6 inches
across portions of northeast Texas with isolated higher amounts.
Ongoing Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to add Nevada county.
Otherwise, no additional adjustments to the Flash Flood Watch
needed at this time.

Increased shear along the northeast quadrant of Beryl within an
unstable airmass will support a heightened tornado threat across
much of the ArkLaTex today, mainly during the afternoon into the
early evening hours.

Further east, across portions of north Louisiana, a combination of
high humidity values and highs in the lower 90s could drive heat
index values to near 105 degrees. However, not expecting
conditions to warrant a Heat Advisory at this time.

Beryl is forecast to shift northeast across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley late Monday night into Tuesday with conditions gradually
improving thereafter. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A fairly stagnant setup expected through much of the long-term
period characterized by a broad upper-level trough firmly
established across the central CONUS and an upper-ridge across the
Gulf of Mexico. The upper-trough will support diurnally driven
afternoon convection each day across mainly north Louisiana and
east Texas in association with a weak frontal boundary along the
northern Gulf Coast. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico will allow for temperatures to climb
into the upper 90s along and south of I-20 by late in the work
week into the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures in the
lower 90s across Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Storm Beryl will move northeast across the ArkLaTex
region and into Central Arkansas through the period. All TAF sites
will eventually be affected by heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Low-level wind shear can also be expected. Sustained wind speeds
in excess of 35 kts with gusts in excess of 50 kts can be expected
just north and east of the center of Beryl. The strongest winds
will likely affect KLFK, KGGG, KSHV, and KELD. Strong convection
including tornadoes will be likely until the center of Beryl
passes to the north and northeast. Occasional IFR/LIFR flight
conditions should be anticipated. Conditions will improve from
southwest to northeast as Beryl moves away.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  74  87  72 /  90  90  40  10
MLU  92  75  89  70 /  30  90  40  10
DEQ  84  67  82  64 /  90  90  70  10
TXK  87  71  85  68 /  80 100  60  10
ELD  88  70  82  66 /  70  90  60  10
TYR  83  70  87  70 / 100  90  20  10
GGG  83  70  87  69 /  90 100  30  10
LFK  82  71  89  70 / 100  90  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-
     071.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ001-002-010.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>013-017-
     018.

OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ077.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...09