Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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570 FXUS64 KSHV 070701 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 201 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Instability will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front to the north and tropical cyclone Beryl that is advancing northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough across the Southern Plains will allow for sufficient mixing to limit high temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Could see an enhanced sea- breeze boundary lifting north this afternoon which could allow for scattered convection mainly across east and northeast Texas as well as north Louisiana. Beryl to make landfall overnight tonight across the mid to upper Texas coast. The combination of the approaching tropical cyclone interacting with the upper-trough and surface boundary will drive rain chances to likely and near categorical levels across the ArkLaTex Sunday night into Monday. Increased shear along the eastern edge of the cyclone as it moves north across east and northeast Texas will allow for an increased tornado threat across much of the ArkLaTex on Monday. Additionally, heavy rainfall with totals from 2 to 4 inches may be possible across mainly east and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the center of circulation with lesser values elsewhere. Otherwise, with increased cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be much cooler with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s along the path of Beryl. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A stagnant broad upper-level trough will remain anchored across the mid-conus through much of the work-week. A weak lingering surface boundary in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex will support widely-scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region each day. Additionally, a cooler and drier airmass north of the frontal boundary will allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs through much of the work- week in the mid to upper 80s, gradually increasing into the lower 90s by Friday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across the southern CONUS. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected during the weekend with highs creeping into the mid to upper 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For the 07/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will largely prevail this period as drier post-frontal air continues to work southward into our airspace. The one exception will likely be at LKF where patchy MVFR/IFR may return closer to daybreak. Otherwise, look for cloud cover to gradually increase through the day on Sunday as TS Beryl approaches the middle Texas coast with scattered convection moving into our southern airspace by the early afternoon. This convection may shift as far north as I-20 by mid to late afternoon so have included VCTS late in the period at all sites except for TXK/ELD. Otherwise, except light E/NE winds to trend more E/SE through the period. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 79 90 75 / 30 20 70 70 MLU 92 75 92 74 / 40 20 40 50 DEQ 93 71 86 68 / 10 50 70 60 TXK 96 75 90 71 / 20 50 60 70 ELD 93 74 89 70 / 30 30 60 60 TYR 95 76 87 71 / 20 20 80 70 GGG 95 76 87 72 / 30 20 80 70 LFK 94 76 85 72 / 40 30 80 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...19