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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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992 FXUS64 KSHV 071848 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 No wholesale changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. Temperatures look on track reach the low to middle 90s before cloud cover builds in from the south and northwest. Storms in Oklahoma at this hour are expected to dissipate as they near our CWA. A band of light rainfall has begun to swing into our Louisiana parishes, from the south with more rainfall expected to follow, as showers and storms build north and west into this afternoon. Actively contemplating the products which will be necessary to account for the impacts of Beryl to the ArkLaTex, the first of which should be issued together with our afternoon forecast package in a few hours...stay tuned. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and much of tonight, before conditions begin to deteriorate with the landfall of TS Beryl along the middle TX coast Monday morning. Cu cigs have developed early this afternoon across much of E TX, with the cu field more scattered elsewhere, with scattered convection having recently developed SE of TYR, which will gradually spread NW through mid-afternoon. More concentrated convection associated with the outer bands of Beryl have shifted NW into Deep E TX, and will affect LFK by or shortly before 20Z, with additional scattered convection expected to develop and spread N to the I-20 terminals of E TX/N LA between 23-02Z. Gusty winds to near 30kts, reduced vsbys, and MVFR cigs will be possible in/near the convection before diminishing, with AC/cirrus cigs lingering through the evening and overnight hours. However, MVFR cigs are expected to develop after 06Z Monday over Deep E TX/WCntrl LA, before developing farther N to the TYR/GGG/SHV terminals by/after 12Z. Others areas of stratocu should develop between 12-15Z across the remainder of the region, gradually lifting through midday. The convective bands surrounding the center of Beryl should begin affecting LFK between 12-16Z, where RA/vsby reductions were added. Did insert VCSH mention for TYR/GGG by 15-16Z, with the more impactful cigs/vsbys reductions in RA affecting SHV by/after 18Z. ESE winds 5-10kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 79 90 75 / 30 30 80 80 MLU 93 75 92 74 / 40 30 40 60 DEQ 94 71 86 68 / 10 40 80 80 TXK 97 75 90 71 / 20 40 70 90 ELD 94 74 89 70 / 30 30 60 80 TYR 96 76 87 71 / 20 30 90 80 GGG 96 76 87 72 / 30 20 90 80 LFK 95 76 85 72 / 40 20 90 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 AVIATION...15