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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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003 FXUS64 KSHV 041145 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 645 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 This morning`s upper-air analysis indicates that our region remains greatly influenced by this stubborn high-pressure system that has long overstayed it`s welcome. As a result, it is once again going to be extremely hot today. Regardless, stay strong and remember to not go quietly into the night and do not vanish without a fight, "We`re going to live on! We`re going to survive! Because today we celebrate our Independence Day!" Happy 4th of July everyone! Like I mentioned above, today is going to be very warm. Please please take precaution if you are outdoors for a long time celebrating the day. And when the fireworks start popping later in the night, continue to take precaution because right now it is almost 3 am and still 84 degrees outside. Have a safe 4th of July that is not overshadowed by heat exhaustion or heat stroke. With the influence of the ridge aloft, afternoon temperatures will quickly return to the upper 90s today. Wouldn`t be surprised is some locations climbed above 100 degrees again today as we outperformed some on Wednesday. Combine these temperatures with the high humidity and we will see heat indices climb between 105 to 110 degrees or higher this afternoon. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect today for most of the region with a Heat Advisory in place for our far western zones of east Texas. The current heat products are in place through 8:00 PM CDT this evening. While it will remain very warm tomorrow across much of the region, a frontal boundary and some thunderstorms will keep heat index values in check or portions of the area. With the drastic change in the location of any products for Friday, we will wait till the current products expire to issue anything for Friday. Natures fireworks will be possible late this afternoon and into the evening hours for some of our southern and eastern zones. Any convection that does form will be very isolated in nature. As we head further into the evening, showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into our northern zones as the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to push into the region. This will be the start of a much welcomed change in the pattern heading further into the weekend. Thunderstorms should become more widespread during the day Friday. While some of these storms could be strong at times, it does not appear that we will be dealing with any widespread severe weather at this time. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Moving into the weekend, the upper-level ridge that has plagued our area for too long will have pushed off to the east and somewhat become washed out from the large trough moving through the central Plains. At the same time, the frontal boundary mentioned above will dissect the center our region on Saturday, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Thunderstorm potential will remain in place across the region for Sunday as the frontal boundary begins to lift back to the north. These chances are more uncertain though as the GFS is keeping us fairly dry through the day Sunday. Nonetheless, the unsettled weather pattern appears to continue into next week. Hurricane Beryl will begin to move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and should start to strengthen again as it moves towards southern Texas and northeast Mexico. While this won`t have much of a direct impact on our region, another disturbance back behind Beryl could bring us a very active weather pattern through much of next week. There does remain some uncertainty with all of this forecast for next week as some of this precipitation will be determined on the path of these tropical systems moving through the Gulf. In addition to this much welcomed precipitation, temperatures will reach much more manageable levels through most of next week. I am talking highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows actually making it back into the 70s. On top of that, heat index values should remain below critical levels, however, they will still be elevated and it will still feel like the 90s to around 100 degrees, but that is better than 105 to 115 degrees. Anywho, have a wonderful 4th of July and a wonderful weekend. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible between 04/18z-05/02z mainly east of a line from KELD, to KSHV, to KAQV. KMLU would be the most likely TAF site to be affected, but the spotty nature of the convection results in too much uncertainty too prevail weather or VCTS in the forecast at this time. VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours, but some low clouds may move into Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana late in the period. More scattered showers and thunderstorms should spread southward into Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northeast Texas after 05/06z ahead of an approaching cold front, but this second round of convection should remain north of the TAF sites through the end of the period. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 99 81 97 77 / 10 10 50 30 MLU 97 78 95 74 / 30 20 70 30 DEQ 97 73 90 68 / 10 40 30 10 TXK 99 77 94 72 / 10 20 40 20 ELD 97 76 92 70 / 20 20 50 20 TYR 99 78 95 75 / 0 10 30 30 GGG 98 77 95 74 / 0 10 40 30 LFK 97 77 97 75 / 10 10 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124- 125-136-149. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09