015
FXUS64 KSHV 080621
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
121 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Storm Beryl remains the focus of the short-term forecast
period as it continues to slowly intensify just off the middle TX
coast, likely reaching minimal hurricane status by early Monday
morning just prior to landfall. The potential for tropical storm
force winds remains a possibility across parts of Deep East Texas
so cannot completely rule out tropical storm warning headlines in
these areas with future forecast updates. Otherwise, wind advisory
headlines will suffice if it appears that wind speeds will remain
below tropical storm strength this far north on Monday into Monday
night.

The Flood Watch was maintained as is with no changes in time or
area. The other big concern going forward will be the increasing
tornado threat as Beryl shifts farther inland on Monday, and the
Day 2 Slight Risk from SPC outlines much of the region through
Monday night to account for this severe weather potential.

For the remainder of tonight, only minimal changes were needed to
overnight low temperatures as some rain-cooled areas were already
at or approaching previously forecasted low temperatures. In terms
of convection, it has largely diminished late this evening but new
development will be possible overnight so have left PoPs intact.
No other changes are needed at this time. All updated text
products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Flood Watch 5849:

The latest QPF guidance supports the issuance of a Flood Watch for
our Oklahoma and Texas counties, together with adjacent portions of
extreme southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana. Based on the
current timing projections, this Watch will be in effect from 12Z
Monday through 20Z Tuesday.

Overview/Near-term:

As of the 19Z hour Sunday multiple areas of precipitation are
impacting or about to impact the ArkLaTex. A remnant band of light
precip from the morning drifts north from Louisiana into arkansas,
while a more robust band has taken shape, tracking north across the
I-20 corridor of east Texas. Meanwhile, the decaying remnants of this
morning`s storms in central Oklahoma may bring some showers to
McCurtain county shortly. Finally, a band of more widespread heavy
rainfall is moving north into deep east Texas, with a possibility of
producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph as it also tracks
north west towards I-20. Impacts from these rounds of precip will
continue through the evening, tapering off at intermittent intervals
overnight, becoming more widespread into tomorrow morning as the
outer bands of Beryl begin to more persistently impact the ArkLaTex.

Hazards:

Monday will see simultaneous and overlapping hazards presented to
much of the region, in the form of severe weather and flash
flooding. The training rain bands will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall for hours at a time for locations across deep
east and east Texas. Meanwhile, a large north-south swath of the
ArkLaTex, approximately centered on the I-49 corridor has been
outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather. As Beryl approaches,
bands within the front right quadrant (i.e. on the southeastern side
of the cyclone) will be potentially capable of producing brief
spinup tornadoes. Additionally, damaging severe winds may also pose
a threat.

Timing:

The latest guidance distributed by the NHC tracks the center of
Beryl into the ArkLaTex from the southwest during the day Monday,
approaching the Three State Point near daybreak Tuesday and exiting
the area to the northeast during the day Tuesday. Keep in mind, this
is meant to provide a general idea of the storm`s movement, not a
precise timetable. Based on this guidance, areawide rainfall chances
will continue solidly through the end of the short term forecast
period (12Z Tuesday).

Temperatures:

Tonight`s lows will drop into the low to middle 70s for most sites,
climbing only into the middle to upper 80s during the day tomorrow
across east Texas, with a few lower 90s in central to eastern
Louisiana. Aided by the rain cooling effects and wind shift
introduced by Beryl, lows on Tuesday morning may manage to drop into
the upper 60s northwest to middle 70s southeast.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

By daybreak Tuesday, the center of Beryl, to the extent the storm
remains organized, should be roughly centered over the Three State
Point of the ArkLaTex, advancing with relative speed north and east
into Arkansas through the course of the day, as it looks to get
picked up by the upper level troughing digging south over the
Ozarks, which will help speed its departure. Guidance continues to
carry areawide rainfall chances through 00Z Wednesday, but depending
on the speed Beryl achieves, this activity and the needs for its
associated Flood watch may come to an end somewhat sooner.

After Beryl`s rainfall concludes, the ArkLaTex looks to remain
relatively dry- here meaning no additional rainfall- overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the only PoPs Wednesday looking to be
some scattered thunderstorms south of US-84. This will mark the
beginning of a somewhat unsettled but rather more typical pattern of
July in the ArkLaTex, with afternoon convection across our southern
third, usually of the sea breeze variety, between 18Z and 00Z,
coming to an end through the evening, with conditions remaining
quiet overnight and through the following morning, a regime which
looks to still be in play through the end of the long term forecast
period next weekend.

Temperatures on Tuesday will still be mitigated by Beryl`s
rainfall, ranging from the lower 80s north to upper 80s south, with
the following days exhibiting a rapid return to seasonable and above
average temperatures, with areawide highs in the low to mid 90s by
the end of the week, and possible further warming into next weekend.
Lows will trend accordingly, climbing from the 60s and lower 70s
Wednesday back into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the 08/06Z TAF update, Hurricane Beryl`s inland approach into
the airspace will produce multiple impacts to vis/cigs through
the period. That starts with VCSH/VCTS by 08/15Z, then MVFR/IFR
vis/cigs degradations arriving by 08/21Z through the end of the
period. WS groups will begin by 09/00Z as the core circulation of
Beryl crosses over western terminals, also through the end of the
period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  74  88  72 /  80  80  40  10
MLU  92  75  90  70 /  50  60  50  10
DEQ  84  67  82  64 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  87  70  85  68 /  80  80  50  10
ELD  89  70  83  66 /  60  70  60  10
TYR  83  70  88  71 /  90  70  30  10
GGG  83  70  87  69 /  90  80  30  10
LFK  82  71  89  71 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for LAZ001-002-010.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...16