358
FXUS63 KSGF 060710
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
210 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and dry today.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday.

- Temperatures look to remain near average through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6
2024

Dry and quiet conditions will occur today with broad surface
high pressure in place over the region. Temperatures will be a
touch warmer associated with 850 mb height rises, though still
seasonably warm in the mid 80s to near 90.

Water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper-level trough across
the central CONUS with an embedded shortwave diving southeast
through Montana early this morning. These impulses will help
initiate storms across the Plains today; however, dry air and a
lack of forcing this far east will preclude any rain chances
for our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat
Jul 6 2024

No significant changes have been noted with the long term
forecast. NBM percentile data suggest slightly cooler than
normal temperatures Monday; otherwise, temperatures will be
near normal through next week.

As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts east, south-
southwesterly flow will increase moisture into the Missouri
Ozarks. Convection will likely intensify over portions of Kansas
and Oklahoma with diurnal heating on Sunday before potentially
growing into an MCS and gradually shifting east.

Current timing would bring showers and thunderstorms into our
southeastern Kansas counties Sunday afternoon and overspreading
the region Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation chances
associated with this system wind down Tuesday with the passage
of a cold front.

Severe weather potential for the Missouri Ozarks on Sunday and
Monday appears limited, as the better instability and shear are
progged to remain to our west, though global models often
struggle with instability at these time ranges, so trends will
continue to be monitored.

The latest NBM rainfall probabilities Sunday-Monday:
>0.25 inch: 60-80%
>0.50 inch: 40-60%
>1.00 inch: 20-40%
>2.00 inch: 0-20%

We will also have to keep an eye on the track of Tropical
Storm/Hurricane Beryl. Most ensemble guidance tends to bring it
northeastward after it makes landfall as it gets steered by the
upper-level trough. The official National Hurricane Center
forecast does indicate at least some chance of Beryl`s remnants
tracking close enough to the Missouri Ozarks to bring rain to
our CWA for the middle to latter part of the week, though
tropical cyclone forecasting can be very difficult and variable,
so the forecast will have to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

UPDATE: Smoke and haze from the fireworks of patriotic Americans
has caused some temporary reductions in visibilities to below 6
SM early this morning. If significant reductions persist for
extended periods of time, then future amendments to the TAFs
will be made.

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a low
chance (<20%) of some patchy light fog between 10Z-12Z, though
confidence was too low to include any mention in the TAFs. Skies
will be mostly clear, and winds will be light (<10 kt) through
the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio