636
FXUS63 KSGF 141107
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory today through Monday. Heat index values will
  range from near 100 to 108 degrees each afternoon.

- Cold front will bring 50-60% chances for showers and
  thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An upper level ridge was making slow progress east over the
Ozarks region this morning and will continue its slow trek east
through today. Southerly surface flow will continue to bring a
warm and moist air mass into the region. This combination along
with mostly sunny skies and wet ground from recent rains will
produce afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90s with heat
index values from 100 to 106. This prompted the issuance of a
Heat Advisory for all of the Ozarks today.

Expect little in the way of overnight relief at temperatures
linger in the middle to upper 70s

The upper ridge will begin to flatten slightly into Monday as a
result of energy moving southward from an upper low over central
Canada. This will have little effect however on the regions
heat. Temperatures at 850mb across the area will be in the
23-25C range, slightly higher than todays, 21-23C allowing
afternoon highs to climb into the middle 90s (eastern Ozarks)
to around 100 degrees (the Joplin area). With continued
precipitable water values in the 2 inch range, and surface Td`s
around 70 degrees, heat index values will reach the 100 to 110
range. Thus the Heat Advisory will continue through Monday for
the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday night will be another warm one. Lows in the low to
middle 70 (eastern Ozarks) to around 80 degrees (west of Highway
65) will give little relief once again. The upper ridge will
remain in control of the areas weather though a front will begin
to make its way across the plains and may move into the region
Tuesday evening. The front currently looks to begin moving into
the region after the maximum heating of the day which may cause
the need to extend the Heat Advisory into Tuesday with current
Heat Indicies in the 100 to 108 range Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday will see a pattern shift and the
next potential chance for showers and storms for the Ozarks.
There is differences in the synoptic models in how far south the
front makes it and where it may stall over the area during the
day Wednesday. With the potential for a stalled boundary across
the region along with some jet interaction and ample low level
moisture rain chances in the 50-60 percent range are forecast.
Expectations from the NBM guidance would support a good (60-80%
chance of at least some (~0.10") rain with around 20-30% chance
for and inch or more of rain). However, if the frontal boundary
stalls across the region, storms would likely train across the
region and provide the potential for higher rainfall amounts
and the chance for flooding. Will monitor later runs this week
on flood potential from Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Along with the rain chances on Wednesday, the stalled front will
produce ample cloud cover. This will help keep temperatures in
check with highs in the 80s.

Heading into the later half of the week, a pattern shift to
northwesterly flow aloft and a much cooler airmass filtering
into the region will bring welcome relief from the highs of the
start of this week. The expectations are for highs around 80
degrees with some lower 80s. This is 5 to 10 degrees below
average for this time of year. Average highs for the third week
of July are around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Flight conditions across the region through Monday morning are
expected to be VFR with occasionally gusty surface winds from
the south.

A band of showers across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas
will move south this morning but are not anticipated to reach
the regions terminals. This will be monitored and updated will
be issued as needed.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch