820
FXUS63 KSGF 031811
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat
  index values of 95 to 110. The highest heat index values and
  threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern
  Missouri.

- Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible from today
  through Thursday night. There is a slight risk(2 of 5) for
  severe storms both today and Thursday with the main risk for
  damaging wind gusts.

- High moisture content over the area will lead to very
  efficient rain producing storms and the potential of localized
  flooding and flash flooding.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon
  into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

With the Heat Advisory in affect for southern Missouri the main
item of concern this morning is that overnight lows only fell
into the upper 70s to around 80 overnight. This will provide
little recovery for those not served by air conditioning ahead
of a very hot day...particularly for those across the recreation
areas from Branson into the Scenic Riverways.

Cloud cover and scattered light convection ahead of a ill
defined MCV/shortwave places some question whether the debris
will impact temperatures. Models depict quite the range of
guidance...with Branson cloud cover output for example ranging
from 32 to 84% and West Plains 23 to 77%. Anticipate clouds to
mitigate the heat for areas along and just south of I-44
northward. Far southern Missouri will see less relief with high
temperatures will still likely warm into the upper 90s, a Heat
Index around 105, WBGT in the upper 80s to around around 90,
and a Heat Risk in the Major Threat category.

The 12z KSGF sounding to no surprise revealed an unstable
atmosphere with MLCAPES over 2000 J/KG leading to the potential
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. CAM models all
break out convection this afternoon...though vary into two camps
with a percentage that gradually increases convective intensity
as the activity moves east northeast out of Oklahoma while
others group output that freely develops storms over south
central Missouri by mid afternoon. In either case will be
increasing POPs for this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis shows a strong jet streak diving
southeast out of British Columbia into the U.S. Rockies. Another
jet streak was exiting the upper Mississippi valley into the
western Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Convection has
developed along a frontal boundary over central/eastern KS into
northern MO, but has generally stayed north of the CWA so far
tonight. This activity was pushing off to the east. Additional
weaker convection extended into northern and western Oklahoma
and was lifting northeast. Temperatures across the area were in
the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

Today: Cold front/thunderstorm outflow is expected to drop south
into the CWA today and stall out with nearly parallel upper
level flow. The boundary is expected to have a sharp temperature
gradient and will be the focus for additional convective
development today as instability increases along and south of
the boundary. In addition, we`ll see higher afternoon heat index
values that will likely meet heat advisory criteria south of the
front. Current heat advisory is mainly just along the MO/AR
border, but may need to extend northward slightly before
forecast is issued. Some strong thunderstorm clusters will be
possible this afternoon/evening with the redevelopment which may
lead to some strong to severe thunderstorm chances (level 2 of
5) with damaging wind gusts as the main severe risk. High
precipitable water content over 2" will lead to very efficient
rainfall rates and the potential of localized flooding/flash
flooding, especially if these storm clusters can push across the
same locations.

Tonight: Shortwave energy in the plains ahead of the main trough
will push east into the area with additional nighttime
convection expected to push across the area. Heavy rain will
remain possible along with a localized flooding risk.

Thursday: After late night and morning convection wanes,
renewed convection will be possible later in the day along any
remnant boundaries and MCV`s. Afternoon instability will be
dependent on how much clearing takes place after the morning
convection which will also have an effect on the temperatures
and heat index during the afternoon. If we can clear out and
heat up, then we could see heat index values reach the 105 to
110 range during the afternoon over mainly the southern half of
the CWA. If this occurs, then instability would be sufficient to
support some strong to severe storms (level 2 of 5) with large
hail and damaging wind the main risks, along with a continued
localized flooding risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday night: Frontal boundary will push through the area
along with the upper low shifting east into the western Great
Lakes region. Thunderstorm chances will continue along the
front, but should end from northwest to southeast during the
late night as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front.

Friday-Saturday: A cooler and drier air mass will move in behind
the front, putting an end to the higher heat and humidity for a
bit. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s and on
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday into early next week: Another shortwave trough will push
out of the plains and into the area from the northwest on Sunday
and Monday which will bring additional thunderstorm chances to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Two areas being monitored for the development of TSRA this
afternoon. First a high based band of showers will continue to
move east into southwest Missouri. Embedded thunder is expected
to develop during the course of the afternoon...potentially
impacting operations at KJLN and KSGF. Additional TSRA may
develop south of I-44 into Arkansas...with better chances east
of KBBG into south central MO.

Additional development will occur overnight as a cold front
advects southward...diminishing toward morning.

 High based showers


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:


July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-091-092-
     095>098-101>106.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels
CLIMATE...Nelson