157
FXUS63 KSGF 050731
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier conditions today and Saturday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday.

- Temperatures look to remain near normal through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Cooler and drier conditions will occur today behind the cold
front that brought storms through the area overnight. Patchy
ground fog may also be observed early this morning with remnant
low-level moisture and light winds. Skies will gradually clear
throughout the day, though temperatures will stay a touch below
average, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Dry weather will persist through Saturday with temperatures
ticking back up closer to the climatological normal associated
with 850 mb height rises. Aloft, large-scale troughing will be
in place across the central and eastern CONUS. Shortwave
impulses embedded within the larger trough will help initiate
thunderstorms across the Plains, though dry air across our area
will likely inhibit them from moving into our area Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 231 AM CDT
Fri Jul 5 2024

The aforementioned upper-level trough is progged to dig south
Sunday into Monday before lifting northeast. Global models
depict an MCS developing across the Plains and shifting east
during the day Sunday. Gradually increasing moisture return
ahead of a surface front should allow precipitation to survive
into our forecast area. Precipitation chances increase Sunday
afternoon and persist through the day Monday. The severe threat
remains unclear this far out.

The latest NBM rainfall probabilities Sunday-Monday:
>0.25 inch: 50-80%
>0.50 inch: 40-60%
>1.00 inch: 20-40%
>2.00 inch: 0-20%

Ensemble clusters then depict good agreement in developing a
high-amplitude ridge over the western CONUS. There is currently not
a strong precipitation signal beyond Tuesday, and rain chances
remain 30% or less Tuesday through Thursday. NBM percentile data
show fairly small interquartile spreads through the work week,
indicating higher confidence in near-normal temperatures.

It will also be worth monitoring where the remnants of Hurricane
Beryl track as we look into the middle to latter part of next
week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Stray showers and a few VCTS will be possible at the BBG site
for the first 1-2 hours of the TAF period. Beyond that, VFR
conditions are expected. Prevailing winds will gradually
moderate to the northwest early this morning behind a cold
front. A few gusts up to 15 kt are expected during the
afternoon hours before weakening after sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-089.
     Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ057-058-
     070-071-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio