574
FXUS63 KSGF 041808
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
108 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for far southern Missouri today
  where afternoon Heat Index values range from 105-109 degrees.

- There is a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of the area late this afternoon into the evening
  hours. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard.

- Storms today will produce efficient rainfall rates, producing
  a risk of localized flooding and flash flooding.

- Cooler conditions return Friday into next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Latest CAMS indicate the potential for showers and storms to
begin developing across far eastern Kansas and Northeastern
Oklahoma between 18 and 21z this afternoon (more likely closer
to 21-23z), depending on the model of choice.

Temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and 90s, Td`s in the
low to middle 70s will provide the fuel for storms to develop.
This would produce CAPE values in the 2500-4000j/kg range. Add
in the slow moving cold front that will make its way south into
the region this evening and overnight providing lift and no cap,
showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of I-49
and move east this evening.

While there looks to be limited low level Jet support for
storms, with the front moving towards the region, and upper
level jet energy across northern Missouri providing some upper
level support, some storms will be capable of become strong to
severe. The main concern remains damaging winds with D-CAPE
(downdraft CAPE) of 1000-1400j/kg would support this. Hail
potential is less concerning, but 500-900j/kg in the hail growth
zone (-10 to -30 degree level) and 35-40kts of 0-6km shear would
allow for isolated large hail. The tornado chances are rather
low though not zero and will rest on how storms develop and move
east this evening.

Will also monitor for flood potential with PW values in the 1.9
to 2" range noted across the region. This will allow for heavy
rainfall potential, which may have impact across areas that
received rainfall last night .

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Morning Storms:
Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of storms across eastern
Kansas barreling into Missouri early this morning. These storms
have produced wind gusts of 70-80 mph. Scattered convection out
ahead of the line has remained sub- severe and eaten up some of
the instability. Forward propagating vectors and 0-3 km bulk
shear vectors suggest this line should continue to track east
along the instability gradient into the early morning hours, and
continuing to weaken as it does so. Highest storm chances this
morning are along and north of I-44. Gusty winds up to 50 mph
will be the primary hazard has they enter our CWA.

Precipitable water values northward of 2" and a very moist
airmass will allow for very efficient rainfall rates under any
storms. However, recent guidance has shifted the heaviest
precipitation axis slightly north from previous indications.
Specifically, the 00Z HREF LPMM depicts a pockets of 4-6 inches
of rainfall somewhere between the Highway 54 and I-70 corridor.
The Flood Watch has been maintained given the potential for
training thunderstorms.

Afternoon/Evening Heat and Storms:
Earlier convection will shift east out of the forecast area in
the morning. Beyond that, hi-res guidance even suggests partial
clearing during the late morning and early afternoon hours,
particularly across far southern Missouri near the Arkansas
border. Therefore, temperatures were nudged closer to the NBM
25th percentile, maxing out in the mid 90s with afternoon Heat
Index Values in the 105-109 range. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for these areas from 12-9 PM today.

Clearing and surface heating will contribute to steep low-level
lapse rates and increased destabilization across southern
Missouri throughout the afternoon. As an upper-level trough over
the northern Plains gradually shifts east, a southwest to
northeast oriented surface boundary will set up over the area.
CAMs depict convective initiation across Oklahoma by mid-
afternoon shifting east into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri by early evening. Southwest mean flow relative to the
boundary would support a cluster storm mode with embedded
smaller line segments. Severe wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard, with hail to the size of quarters also possible
given the robust updrafts. The tornado threat appears low given
modest and veering 850 mb winds and would likely be limited to
boundary/outflow interactions. This activity appears diurnally
driven, and the severe threat likely winds down after 10 PM. The
Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight risk for severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Cooler temperatures will return Friday into next week with NBM
percentile data supporting highs in the 80s each day.

Our next-best rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday as
additional upper-level energy digs through the Plains. There are
some indications of MCS development across the northern Plains,
and this activity may track into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri, however, confidence in any details remains low this
far out. Precipitation chances range from 40-60%.

Ensembles develop deep upper-level ridging across the western
U.S. early next week. Precipitation chances remain low
(generally 25% or less) through much of the work week given the
lack of any strong forcing signal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered cloud cover early this afternoon across the region in
response to daytime heating is expected to increase and expand
by middle to late afternoon into the evening and overnight
hours. This will occur as a front moves into the region and
showers and storms develop. Where storms occur, aviation
concerns can expect, MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Otherwise,
VFR ceilings or scattered deck can be expected. Surface winds
may be breezy at times with southwesterly winds this afternoon
shifting out of the northwest tonight into Friday morning.

Flight conditions will improve overnight into Friday as high
pressure slowly moves into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-095>098-
     101>106.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Nelson