Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
773 FXUS63 KSGF 071741 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return Today mainly west of Springfield (30-50%). Higher chances arrive area wide tonight into Monday (40-70%). - Remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl arrive across south central Missouri Tuesday with a Slight risk for excessive rainfall southeast of Interstate 44. - Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with above normal temps returning for the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 846 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Early morning update concerning MCS over south central KS/north central OK easing its way toward the forecast area. Ill defined MCV near Medicine Lodge (KP28) moving along the KS/OK border with a 34 kt report at Windfield (KWLD) ahead of this feature. Weak low level flow present(KOUN 12z sounding recorded 15 kt at H8 and a 15 kt at KSGF), so question how far east the cluster will make it. KSGF sounding was also dry (PW 1.16) with meager instability further impeding the eastward advance of rainfall. Still, the HRRR has a decent handle on the current positioning and has been very consistent with multiple past runs so it merits attention in dissipating MCS as it approaches southeast KS toward noon with some convective redevelopment late this afternoon over SE KS, NW OK which may spill over into far SW MO into the early evening. This trend follows forecast POPs though may need to taper these chances back a touch if supported by later CAMs. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to show a upper level trough centered across the central US. Upper level ridging was occuring across the western US which was leading to excessive heat out there. Tropical Storm Beryl continues to move northwest towards Texas. Locally, our atmosphere was relatively dry and stable per 00z KSGF sounding. Showers and storms across the plains continue to dissipate as they approach the area. Mostly clear skies were occuring with temps dropping comfortably into the lower 60s to around 70. Some light fog was also occuring near area lakes and rivers given the light winds and clear skies. Today through Tonight: Latest high res guidance indicates that additional shortwave energy will approach southeast Kansas and far western Missouri by this afternoon. This may cause scattered thunderstorms to develop out there in an area of increasing moisture and instability. Otherwise most locations across southern Missouri look to remain dry with the NBM suggesting a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Scattered thunderstorms may linger across southern Missouri overnight as a front drops into the area however higher chances look to remain southwest of the area, closer to the low level jet. 00z HREF data shows localized amounts of 0.1 to 0.5in with any of the thunderstorm activity today through tonight across the area. Locations east of Springfield could remain dry through tonight. Monday: Additional shortwave energy looks to move into the area from the west which will cause additional scattered showers and storms to develop across the area during the day. Widespread clouds looks to keep temps cooler with highs in the lower to middle 80s per the latest NBM. Higher precipitable water look to be in place (1.4-1.8in) therefore the localized pockets of 0.5 to 1 inch of rain that the HREF suggests looks reasonable however it does not look widespread. This looks to change however as the remnants of Beryl moves closer to the area by Monday night and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Remnants of Beryl: Ensembles are coming into better agreement that the remnants of Beryl will move into northeast Texas Monday night and then through Arkansas on Tuesday. Given this track, the area will likely see widespread clouds and higher rain chances begnning Monday night across the Missouri/Arkansas border. However the main brunt of rain looks to occur Tuesday into Tuesday night as the system moves into southcentral and southeast Missouri. This track places locations southeast of Interstate 44 in a favored location for widespread rainfall and precip chances have increased to 70-80% and will likely increase further with additional updates. The latest ECMWF EFI/Shift of Tails Tool is showing this area potentially seeing a significant rain event. Furthermore, NBM probs for 2 inches or more of rainfall have now increased to 40% across the West Plains region. WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There typically is a tight gradient with rainfall on the northwest side and this will become better defined as we get closer. Overall, highest precip amounts (over one inch) are expected southeast of Interstate 44. Depending on the exact track, a few thunderstorms could also occur Monday night as the system approaches however at this time the higher chances look to remain just southeast of the area but will need to monitor given the wind profiles. Clouds, precip, northerly winds will likely keep temps below average Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s Tuesday and lower 80s Wednesday. Heat returns end of the week/beyond: Thursday looks to be a transition day as ensemble cluster analysis continues to suggest that the upper ridge out west will slowly build in for the end of the week into the weekend. This will advect in warmer 850mb temps from the southwest with NBM data already showing high temps in the 90s with rain chances less than 20 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a cluster of showers along an outflow boundary moving across southeast Kansas toward southwest Missouri. Unsettled weather is then expected throughout the TAF period and beyond. MVFR ceilings will be possible with any thunderstorm and their outflows, though some more widespread lowered ceilings will be possible as a cold front approaches Monday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...Runnels SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Runnels