Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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055 FXUS63 KSGF 031544 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1044 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat index values of 95 to 110. The highest heat index values and threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri. - Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible from today through Thursday night. There is a slight risk(2 of 5) for severe storms both today and Thursday with the main risk for damaging wind gusts. - High moisture content over the area will lead to very efficient rain producing storms and the potential of localized flooding and flash flooding. - Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon into Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 With the Heat Advisory in affect for southern Missouri the main item of concern this morning is that overnight lows only fell into the upper 70s to around 80 overnight. This will provide little recovery for those not served by air conditioning ahead of a very hot day...particularly for those across the recreation areas from Branson into the Scenic Riverways. Cloud cover and scattered light convection ahead of a ill defined MCV/shortwave places some question whether the debris will impact temperatures. Models depict quite the range of guidance...with Branson cloud cover output for example ranging from 32 to 84% and West Plains 23 to 77%. Anticipate clouds to mitigate the heat for areas along and just south of I-44 northward. Far southern Missouri will see less relief with high temperatures will still likely warm into the upper 90s, a Heat Index around 105, WBGT in the upper 80s to around around 90, and a Heat Risk in the Major Threat category. The 12z KSGF sounding to no surprise revealed an unstable atmosphere with MLCAPES over 2000 J/KG leading to the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon. CAM models all break out convection this afternoon...though vary into two camps with a percentage that gradually increases convective intensity as the activity moves east northeast out of Oklahoma while others group output that freely develops storms over south central Missouri by mid afternoon. In either case will be increasing POPs for this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a strong jet streak diving southeast out of British Columbia into the U.S. Rockies. Another jet streak was exiting the upper Mississippi valley into the western Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Convection has developed along a frontal boundary over central/eastern KS into northern MO, but has generally stayed north of the CWA so far tonight. This activity was pushing off to the east. Additional weaker convection extended into northern and western Oklahoma and was lifting northeast. Temperatures across the area were in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Today: Cold front/thunderstorm outflow is expected to drop south into the CWA today and stall out with nearly parallel upper level flow. The boundary is expected to have a sharp temperature gradient and will be the focus for additional convective development today as instability increases along and south of the boundary. In addition, we`ll see higher afternoon heat index values that will likely meet heat advisory criteria south of the front. Current heat advisory is mainly just along the MO/AR border, but may need to extend northward slightly before forecast is issued. Some strong thunderstorm clusters will be possible this afternoon/evening with the redevelopment which may lead to some strong to severe thunderstorm chances (level 2 of 5) with damaging wind gusts as the main severe risk. High precipitable water content over 2" will lead to very efficient rainfall rates and the potential of localized flooding/flash flooding, especially if these storm clusters can push across the same locations. Tonight: Shortwave energy in the plains ahead of the main trough will push east into the area with additional nighttime convection expected to push across the area. Heavy rain will remain possible along with a localized flooding risk. Thursday: After late night and morning convection wanes, renewed convection will be possible later in the day along any remnant boundaries and MCV`s. Afternoon instability will be dependent on how much clearing takes place after the morning convection which will also have an effect on the temperatures and heat index during the afternoon. If we can clear out and heat up, then we could see heat index values reach the 105 to 110 range during the afternoon over mainly the southern half of the CWA. If this occurs, then instability would be sufficient to support some strong to severe storms (level 2 of 5) with large hail and damaging wind the main risks, along with a continued localized flooding risk. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Thursday night: Frontal boundary will push through the area along with the upper low shifting east into the western Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm chances will continue along the front, but should end from northwest to southeast during the late night as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front. Friday-Saturday: A cooler and drier air mass will move in behind the front, putting an end to the higher heat and humidity for a bit. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s and on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday into early next week: Another shortwave trough will push out of the plains and into the area from the northwest on Sunday and Monday which will bring additional thunderstorm chances to the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For the 12z TAFS, scattered convection will occur throughout the day, however the best chances will be after 21z and through the night. Within any convection, a predominant MVFR with brief IFR is expected, while VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-091-092- 095>098-101>106. && $$ UPDATE...Runnels SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Nelson