Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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773 FXUS63 KSGF 040512 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat index values of 95 to 110. The highest heat index values and threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri. - Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible from today through Thursday night. There is a slight risk (2 of 5) for severe storms both today and Thursday with the main risk for damaging wind gusts. - High moisture content over the area will lead to very efficient rain producing storms and the potential of localized flooding and flash flooding. - Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper air analysis shows an upper-level high located over the southeastern U.S. An upper-level trough is located over Ontario, while a shortwave is located over the Rockies, moving east- southeast. At the surface, a northeast-southwest oriented cold front is moving slowly southeast. Convective initiation has begun in our southeast CWA where moist, humid air is in front of the cold front. A wider area of lighter rain is moving northeast out of southeast Kansas. Today, cloud cover over much of the area should limit highs to the upper 80s and low 90s. The exception to this of course is where there are no clouds, where highs instead reach the mid 90s. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, it will be hot and humid. A heat advisory is in effect until 8 PM for these areas, although heat indices likely will not reach as high as previously forecasted, as moist air is beginning to be advected northward. Thunderstorms are expected today. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather. With MLCAPE between 2500-3750 J/kg, ample instability and humidity exist for severe storms for areas currently free of clouds. Shear on the other hand is on the low end, with values of 0-6 km shear from 25-35 knots for the afternoon. CAMs show scattered development along the cold front, which we are currently observing. Some other models, though a lower number, strengthen incoming showers from northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas and strengthen them further. Regardless, the environment supports scattered damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall as the main hazards of these storms through the evening. More thunderstorms are expected tonight. As the low-level jet develops overnight, our area will be in the right-entrance region of the jet. This will provide ample tropospheric lift for storms to develop. Precipitable water vapor values of greater than 2" are prevalent across Missouri, approaching the 99th percentile, so significantly above our average climatology. This has the potential to result in torrential rainfall late tonight into Thursday morning as multiple rounds of thunderstorms move through tonight. We are currently forecasting widespread areas of 2-3" of rainfall, with the potential for localized pockets of up to 6" of rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the northern half of our CWA from 7 PM tonight through late Thursday night because of this risk. Moving to Thursday, some convection from the previous night may be left over. The extent of remaining convection and cloud cover will greatly influence what we get here on Thursday. Beginning with heat, heat headlines may be possible in our southern counties depending on how clouds clear. Both high-resolution ensembles and the NBM give wide spreads in high temperatures tomorrow (i.e at Branson, 25th percentile NBM gives 87, while 75th gives 94). The HREF gives 10-30% chances of exceeding heat indices of 105 by the Arkansas border. More clarity on the exact temperatures tomorrow should come as confidence in the forecast improves. Thunderstorm chances also depend on clearing tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has our entire CWA in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) tomorrow. Depending on how early storms and clouds clear in the morning affects destabilization, with greater destabilization occurring in areas of greater heating. Storms will grow along a surface cold front which will move southeast in the afternoon. Values of shear and instability are high enough to support organized storm modes before the thunderstorms grow upscale. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall are the primary hazards with these storms, although some of the stronger storms which develop also pose an isolated hail risk. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Looking into the long term, colder and drier air will move in behind the front that moves through on Thursday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, while dewpoints fall to the low 60s, finally providing some relief from the heat and humidity. Precipitation and thunderstorm chances return on Sunday and Monday, as a shortwave trough moves over our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain north of the TAF sites through much if not all of the night. There is a low chance that storms currently across Kansas shift far enough south to impact the JLN and SGF site around 12Z, however confidence in this occurring is low. Additional thunderstorm development is likely along a cold front by late afternoon and evening today. Current thinking is that storms move east and south of the TAF sites around 06Z. Southwest winds will shift to the northwest with the passage of the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>081-083-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kenny LONG TERM...Kenny AVIATION...Didio CLIMATE...Nelson