461
FXUS63 KSGF 071945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (40-605) increase overnight from southeast
  Kansas into central Missouri. Higher chances arrive area wide
  tonight into Monday (40-70%).

- Impact from the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl arrive across
  southern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks Monday night through
  Tuesdsay. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall
  southeast of Interstate 44.

- Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with
  above normal temps returning for the end of the work
  week...then Heat Index back aboe 100 next weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A cluster of showers with embedded thunderstorms over southern
Kansas into Oklahoma tied to a weak shortwave will advect into
southwest Missouri this afternoon. While moisture across the
vertical column is increasing there remains plenty of dry air to
be overcome along with poor mid level lapse rates. Of
additional interest though is the wake low over northeast
Oklahoma that has produced 40-60 mph winds in the Claymore/east
Tulsa area...and may sneak into far southwest Missouri by mid
afternoon.

The other main features this afternoon is a digging upper trough
extending across much of the nation and Tropical Storm Beryl which
is forecast to strengthen as it tracks toward the TX Gulf coast
tonight (see the official National Hurricane Center forecast on
this tropical system).

Rain chances will increase over the west into central Missouri this
evening (to (40-60%) gradually spreading eastward overnight.
Instability though will remain poor limiting lightning potential.

Models then on Monday continue the trend of lifting the remnants of
Beryl across eastern Texas on its way to being injected into the
broad upper trough.  The quicker solution is due to shortwave energy
digging into the central Plains which will lower heights in advance
of the tropical system.  The local results will be continued shower
and embedded thunderstorm chances with precipital water
increasing from 1.25 this morning to around 1.75 Monday
morning...with further increases expected throughout the day.
The combination of the slowing frontal boundary...digging trough
with a strengthening upper jet...and the tropical system sets
the stage for efficient and widespread rainfall Monday night
through Tuesday that continues to highlight south central
Missouri though the potential heavier rains have shifted
westward toward Highway 65 south of I-44.

Probalisitically here are the potential outcomes:
- 10th percentile around a third of an inch
- 25-75 percentile 3/4-1.5 inches
- 90th percentile increases to over 2.5 inches

Not sure that even the 90th percentile will fully capture the
potential over south central MO into the eastern Ozarks...where
an axis of 3 to 5 inches isn`t out of the question.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rainfall chances will end west to east overnight Tuesday as the
tropical system loses its circulation and the upper wave exits east.

The upper flow will transition from northwest flow to having the
western ridge build back with rapidly climbing heights resulting in
a return to temperatures in the 90s and the Heat Index above 100 for
the week end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a cluster of showers along an outflow boundary moving
across southeast Kansas toward southwest Missouri. Unsettled
weather is then expected throughout the TAF period and beyond.

MVFR ceilings will be possible with any thunderstorm and their
outflows, though some more widespread lowered ceilings will be
possible as a cold front approaches Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels