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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
002 FXUS66 KSEW 281023 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Zonal flow aloft over Western Washington today with light onshore flow in the lower levels. Weakening front moving by to the north Saturday. Upper level trough over the area Sunday keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Upper level ridge building offshore Monday moving into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday through Thursday. Low level flow remaining onshore keeping temperatures near normal. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over most of Western Washington early this morning. No precipitation echoes on the doppler radar at 3am/10z. Temperatures with the cloud cover pretty uniform, in the lower to mid 50s. The exception is around Olympia where a little bit of clearing has allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s. No much going on today weatherwise. Zonal flow aloft combined with light onshore flow in the lower levels will keep at least mostly cloudy skies over the area. With the near solstice daytime heating working on the low level moisture some sunshine will develop in the afternoon. Highs near normal with mid 60s along the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Weakening front near 140W early this morning will approach the coast early Saturday morning. Parent low associated with the front up in the Gulf of Alaska and moving northwest. This will stretch out and weaken the front today and tonight. Front close enough for a chance of showers along the North Coast with just mostly cloudy skies over the remainder of the area. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. What is left of the front dragging through Western Washington Saturday. Best chance for showers will be along the coast, in the mountains and over the Northwest Interior. Any showers that do develop will be light. Highs similar to today with mid 60s coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Weak upper level trough remaining over Western Washington Saturday night into Sunday. Not a whole lot with this feature with 500 mb heights in the lower 570 dms. There will be plenty of low level moisture so any lift could produce a light shower or perhaps some morning drizzle. Once again best chances will be along the coast, in the mountains and over the Northwest Interior. Lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Little change in the high temperatures from the previous two days with mid 60s along the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Extended models in good agreement with an upper level ridge building offshore Monday. The ridge will weaken slightly as it moves over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday with the ridge remaining over the area into the 4th of July. A weak shortwave riding down the backside of the ridge Monday morning could trigger a shower in the North and Central Cascades. 500 mb heights rising to the upper 570 dms to the mid 580 dms by the middle of the week but the low level low remains onshore. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s on the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland Monday and Tuesday. A little warmer Wednesday and on the 4th with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast and 70s to lower 80s inland. Felton && .AVIATION...Northwesterly flow turning westerly this afternoon as weak transient ridging builds over W WA. A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions over the interior early this morning as residual low level moisture continues to linger through over the area. Spots prone to lower cigs (KHQM, KPWT) may see IFR conditions briefly throughout early morning. Ceilings are expected to improve into the early afternoon to widespread VFR for the region, with VFR persisting throughout the remainder of the day. KSEA...MVFR ceilings early this morning, with northeasterly winds around 4 to 8 knots. Ceilings will improve to VFR around 17z-19z as clouds lift, remaining VFR for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will turn N/NW later this morning and will hover around 6 to 9 knots. Maz && .MARINE...Weak high pressure offshore will bring generally benign and calm conditions to the area waters today. Additional weak systems look to move through the area waters through the weekend, along with diurnal pushes down the Strait of Juan De Fuca also likely through early next week. At this time, winds look to be below any criteria until possibly Monday night. Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet through the weekend and into early next week, before building to 6 to 8 feet by the middle of next week. Maz && .CLIMATE...Today is the three year anniversary of the hottest day on record in Western Washington. A sample of some of the highs on June 28, 2021, Seattle 108 degrees at Seattle Tacoma airport and 107 at the forecast office, Renton 109, Olympia, Elma and Quillayute 110, Everett 100, Bellingham 99. On the flip side, with three days left to go in the month of June the average temperature for the month is 60.6 degrees ( 1.2 degrees below normal ). The forecast temperatures for the next three days would put the average monthly June temperature at 61.0 degrees. This would be the coldest June since 2012 where the average temperature was 58.3 degrees. The average temperature in 2022 was 61.1 degrees. 2012 was also the last time July had below normal temperatures in Seattle. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$