252
FXUS61 KRNK 061452
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1052 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm day is in store, but humidity will be less for
most compared to Friday. A front lingers across the Piedmont.
The front vacillates over the area into Monday, and we will see
a chance for thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1035 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory remains for parts of the NC and VA Piedmont
and Southside VA. Some records may be reached or broken, see
Climate section below.

2. Less chances for storms today as drier air nudges southeast
limiting chance to over southern VA into NC.

Moisture has come down compared to last night as evidence by 12z
RNK sounding, where pwats fell from 1.71 inches Friday evening
to 1.19 inches this morning. However, pwats remain elevated
close to 2 inches at GSO this morning. There is a sharp gradient
between higher moisture and lower dewpoints. Numerous models
trend slightly drier today and push the chance of storms further
southeast across NC into eastern VA but enough moisture
convergence along a front in the higher theta-e gradient will
lead to scattered storms roughly from the NC mountains to
southside VA, but again, trends are further southeast so don`t
be surprised if the majority of our forecast area stays dry this
afternoon. With the lower dewpoints, heat indices may not reach
advisory levels, but at this point still hot with highs in the
mid to upper 90s in the piedmont, so not making any changes to
the headlines.

Previous discussion...

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms were moving across
our VA/NC Piedmont along a surface trough, and were remnants of
a complex of storms from last night. A cold front was just to
our northwest, and will move into our VA Counties around 8 AM.
We may see a few showers, but most of the activity will wait
until the front reaches a Boone, NC, to Martinsville, VA, to Red
House, VA line where much juicier air will be. Short wave
energy arrives in SW flow later in the afternoon and evening and
will impinge on this region.

PWATs over the Piedmont where storms are likely will be at
least 2.10", while drier air will already be filtering into the
mountains north of the front. Last night, GSP`s soundings had
2.22" PWAT, which is extremely high and above climatology.

With the front mostly through our forecast area, and
instability pooled mostly to our southeast, expect the main
concern to be heavy rain leading to flooding along and south of
the Boone to Farmville line mentioned earlier. We already saw
some instances of the last night, and with such high moisture
content, slow storm motion, and recent rains to boot, it will
not take much to have problems. This is supported by WPC`s
Slight Risk for Excessive Rain area.

Compressional warming along the front as well as high dew
points and continued warmer than normal temperatures (850mb
temperatures around 20C) has lead to the need for another Heat
Advisory for Buckingham, Appomattox, Campbell, Halifax,
Pittsylvania, and Caswell Counties from 11 AM to 8 PM today.

Tonight, cooler and drier air continues to filter in, but
showers may continue over NC depending on where the front
stalls. Where skies clear, expect dense fog, especially in the
valleys and where it rains.

Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in
frontal location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
      As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Boundary keeps showers largely south of Highway 460 until Monday

A stalled boundary will sit around the VA/NC border on Sunday, with
drier air to the north  and much moister air to the south of it. The
drier air will limit the formation of showers and  storms in VA,
while the front will encourage them around the border and to the
south of it. By Monday the front will start to wash out, allowing
more moisture to slowly creep northwards. As a result, showers and
storms will also spread north and impact the entire CWA on Monday
afternoon.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal during this time period,
with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
      As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled with storms through most of the week


Next week will be a fairly standard mid-July week, weatherwise.
Another front will slide into the Mid-Atlantic by late Tuesday, and
stall out. This will lead to scattered showers and storms to form
each afternoon and evening along with diurnal heating. Generous
PWATs could lead to some heavy showers, and therefore some localized
flooding concerns. It will come down to what areas receive showers
multiple days in a row. Steering flow is week, so storms will not be
very progressive in nature, potentially pouring onto one location
for extended periods of time.

Temperatures will regulate a bit more towards normal for this time
of year, a welcome reprieve from the recent anomalous heat.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Areas of fog expected overnight with potential for IFR
conditions in the mountains per visibility dropping below 3sm.
A period of dense fog is likely in the mountain valleys and
along the western slopes of the Appalachians where a layer of
low level stratus may form.

Any fog/stratus tonight is expected to dissipate by mid morning
Saturday with return of widespread VFR Saturday afternoon.

Average confidence in the above forecast.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Some lingering showers and sub-VFR possible Saturday evening in
the DAN area. Fog possible through the period in the early
mornings. The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances
for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it
storms and any late night fog.

Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Record highs for July 6th. Not expecting any but could be close
at Lynchburg.

Saturday 07/06/2024
Site                 Record High/Year        Forecast
Bluefield                  92/2010               82
Danville                  102 1990               95
Lynchburg                  98 2010               96
Roanoke                   100 1999               94
Blacksburg                 94 2010               88



&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX radar is running in a degraded state. The radar receiver
was damaged by heavy rain getting into the radome Friday afternoon.
Please use surrounding radars or a radar mosaic until our
equipment can be repaired.

BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Will
await the morning Coop report from Bluefield and send a
correction to Friday`s climate summary at that time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH
CLIMATE...SH
EQUIPMENT...PM