177
FXUS61 KRNK 070910
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
510 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will waver across central and eastern Virginia and North
Carolina through the week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms
will continue each day. Unseasonably warm and humid weather will
also remain over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

    - Highest confidence for thunderstorms across North Carolina and
      southern Virginia this afternoon and evening


Front will remain stalled over the region today. Surface dew points
were in the 70s on the east side of the boundary. Guidance has the
front drifting back to the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge today,
allowing those higher dew points to expand northwest. The hottest
heat index will be in the  95 to 100 degree range in the foothills and
piedmont around 4PM.

A majority of the convective allowing models show scattered to
numerous thunderstorms along and south of the Virginia/North
Carolina border, mainly after 2PM. More questionable is the coverage
of thunderstorms along the low level convergence with the front.
Convective Available Potential energy is forecast to be in the 500-
1000 J/kg and shear is minimal, so no organized threat of severe
thunderstorms anticipated. Isolated flash flooding is possible,
especially southeast of the front where rainfall rates could be the
2-4 in/hour. These rates are supported by precipitable water values
of 1.7 to 2.3 inches, above 2 standard deviations above normal.

The abundant moisture will also contribute to mild temperatures
overnight. Most locations on the southeast side of the front will
not drop below 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Diurnally driven showers early this week

2: Showers could have high rain rates

A nearly stationary front in the Mid-Atlantic will continue the
process of losing its boundary characteristics. However, southerly
flow will continue to advect in anomalously warm moist air. PWATs of
1.75-2.25" around the area will be at least a couple standard
deviations above normal according to NAEFS situational awareness
tool. Even in the middle of July, a PWAT of 2" in Danville is quite
a lot of moisture. With such a moisture laden atmosphere, even with
the loss of frontal boundary forcing, scattered diurnal showers will
be wont to form throughout our CWA. In addition to the excessive
atmospheric moisture, model soundings depict tall skinny CAPE
profiles, which are generally indicative of efficient rain
processes. Localized flooding will be a concern as we monitor any
showers that do form, because of the potential for high rain rates.

It will also be anomalously warm, with highs each day in the upper
80s and mid 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and in the 80s west. This
will make for rather uncomfortable outdoor conditions in the
Piedmont and Southside, where heat indices will likely reach 100-
103F during the afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1: Diurnal showers and storms continue

There won`t be much change in the overall weather pattern for us on
the east coast over the course of this week. Broad troughing to our
west, and a stout Bermuda High on the east will ensure that we
continue to receive warm moist advection. The only feature that will
be out of the norm is the washed up remains of Beryl. By the time
that Beryl reaches the Ohio Valley, it will have weakened enough
that its unlikely we receive any wind impacts. What could happen
though, is another infusion of atmospheric moisture. As such, expect
temperatures to be above normal, and diurnal showers and storms to
form each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 505 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR with bkn-ovc mid layer cloud through 16Z/noon

Front will remain stalled over the region today. A majority of
the convective allowing models show scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and south of the Virginia/North Carolina
border, mainly after 2PM. Thunderstorms have the potential for
MVFR ceilings and MVFR or lower visibility due to very heavy
rain. More questionable is the coverage of thunderstorms along
the low level convergence with the front.

The most likely TAF site to have thunderstorms will be KDAN.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, wind.
Average confidence for timing and location of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Little change in the weather pattern and location of the front
is expected through the rest of the week. This will result in a
daily threat of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and
evening.

Prevailing conditions will be VFR. The exception will be brief
periods of IFR/MVFR with the thunderstorms and also with
overnight fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Record highs for July 6th compared to the observed.

Saturday 07/06/2024
Site                 Record High/Year          Actual (through 5PM)
Bluefield                  92/2010               79
Danville                  102 1990               95
Lynchburg                  98 2010               95
Roanoke                   100 1999               93
Blacksburg                 94 2010               87

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX Radar is degraded...Horizontal Low Noise Amplifier is INOP,
damaged by thunderstorm.  Please use data with caution.
High reflectivity above 40 dbz appears OK, but unable
to detect low reflectivity. A Low Noise Amplifier has
been emergency ordered.

BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Rainfall
from the Coop Observer was 0.12 and will be used for Climate
purposes for July 5th.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...PM/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM