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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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289 FXUS61 KRNK 182338 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 738 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front over the Mid Atlantic will briefly drop into the Carolinas tonight then return north Friday night and Saturday. The weather pattern stays active through the beginning with periods of showers and thunderstorms and gradually warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 700 PM EDT Thursday... Key messages: - Just a few spotty showers this evening, maybe a thunderstorm. Patchy fog overnight - Friday max temperatures slightly below normal Precip is waning with loss of heating going into early evening. There is an upstream wave that could spark a shower or two but overall trend is for limited coverage if any tonight. Best chance through the evening will be over southside VA/NC piedmont closer to the better instability. Fog could be an issue overnight with some clearing but confidence still low to what extent and how low vsbys drop. The mountains still seem more plausible to have more fog. Previous discussion... Just a few showers/storms out there today, with best deep convection along instability gradient staying south and east of us. With lack of organized deep convection expected this evening, have dropped the flood watch. Cannot rule out a storm or two that could bring gusty winds or localized flooding but areal coverage will be low. Previous discussion... Another round of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area this evening as a short wave tracks northeast through Virginia. The highest probability precipitation will be south of Route 460. Surface dew points may drop below 60 degrees at the higher elevations late tonight, and below 70 degrees in Southside Virgina and the North Carolina piedmont. As a result minimum temperatures will cool into the upper 50s to upper 60s, close to normal. Southeast West Virginia, much of southwest Virginia will be north of the surface boundary on Friday with a northeast to east wind. The better probability of showers and thunderstorms will be over North Carolina and southern Virginia closer to the surface front. Expecting the more unstable air mass to be south of the region, eliminating the chance of severe thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms Saturday. 2) Temperatures will remain near seasonable values. A stalled boundary will begin to move northward Friday night as a shortwave tracks over the southern Appalachian mountains. This wave will move over the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday. Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch with the heaviest rain occurring Saturday afternoon. Clouds should become thin enough for instabilities to increase over the NW NC foothills and piedmont and Southside VA for strong storms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures Saturday will vary from the mid 70s to mid 80s. As the shortwave tracks north Saturday evening, high pressure will build over the area. This surface ridge should keep the area rain- free through Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across the mountains and mid to upper 80s in the foothills and piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for the daily showers and thunderstorms to continue into the next work week. 2) Little change in temperatures are expected with values staying near normal. The area will be stuck between an upper level trough over the central Mississippi River Valley and a large upper level ridge centered over Bermuda. Waves of low pressure are expected to move from the Gulf and then over the region each day through the period. Each wave will have the potential to bring a healthy amount of rain to the area. As each wave passes, the threat for flooding will increase. Strong storms are also possible, but the main threat will be flash flooding. Near seasonal temperatures are likely through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Thursday... Could have a showers near DAN this evening, otherwise VFR. Expect MVFR fog to develop overnight with pockets of IFR/LIFR. The fog will lift and dissipate by 14Z/10AM Friday. VFR Friday with the better probability of showers and thunderstorms over North Carolina and southern Virginia closer to the surface front, but not coverage for having it in the tafs yet. Winds turn from north tonight to east/southeast Friday afternoon but under 10kts. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Front returns north Friday night and Saturday. The weather pattern stays active through the beginning of next week with periods of MVFR showers and thunderstorms. Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP