Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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503 FXUS61 KRNK 061804 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 204 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will meander to our east through tonight, keeping the better chances for storms across the Piedmont to the coast. Front wavers Sunday with a continued chance for showers and storms mainly in the Piedmont. Next week, expect a daily chance for storms as a couple fronts move into the area, aided by moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the remnants of Beryl. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Heat Advisory remains for parts of the NC and VA Piedmont and Southside VA. Some records may be reached or broken, see Climate section below. 2. Less chances for storms today as drier air nudges southeast limiting chance to over southern VA into NC. About the same chance again Sunday. Locally heavy rain possible with any storm. Moisture has come down compared to last night as evidence by 12z RNK sounding, where pwats fell from 1.71 inches Friday evening to 1.19 inches this morning. However, pwats remain elevated close to 2 inches at GSO this morning. There is a sharp gradient between higher moisture and lower dewpoints. Numerous models trend slightly drier today and push the chance of storms further southeast across NC into eastern VA but enough moisture convergence along a front in the higher theta-e gradient will lead to scattered storms roughly from the NC mountains to southside VA, but again, trends are further southeast so don`t be surprised if the majority of our forecast area stays dry this afternoon. With the lower dewpoints, heat indices may not reach advisory levels, but at this point still hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s in the piedmont, so not making any changes to the headlines. The upper pattern does not change much into Sunday with ridge situated over the southeast with a broad southwest flow, holding the front up across the piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. Moisture will pool along and east of the front hanging close enough to our piedmont, possibly west to the southern Blue Ridge for a chance for storms Sunday afternoon. The low level flow will be weak, so any storms will be slow movers. Sky cover and light east wind may limit heat, so heat advisory levels do not look likely Sunday afternoon. Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in frontal location. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Spotty, hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the early half of next week. 2. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Looking to Sunday night and Monday, a broad upper level trough will be established across the Great Plains region, with modest ridging in place along the eastern seaboard. Closer to home, will be keeping an eye on a stationary front draped across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Seems to be good consensus in the weather model data that the front will begin to drift northward, gradually fading as it progresses, as low pressure passes across the Great Lakes. Increasingly southerly windflow across the region will carry deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, which will support the development of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches from west to east across our area (about 2 standard deviations above normal for early July), will again be looking at the potential for thunderstorms that produce locally heavy rain at rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour. Highest threat for this will be across the Piedmont, where the deeper moisture will be located. Continued muggy conditions are expected for Tuesday, with spotty showers and thunderstorms developing with afternoon heating, a few of which could produce locally heavy downpours. Higher potential for rainfall will be across the mountains where the terrain can help influence storm development, however won`t be surprised to see this activity spill across the Piedmont by early evening. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Will be keeping an eye on how the remnant moisture from Beryl will affect the lower Mid-Atlantic next week. The pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the second half of the coming workweek as a broad upper level trough remains situated across the Great Plains, allowing south- southwesterly windflow to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic. One feature that will be monitored with interest is the remnant of Beryl, which will be a dissipated system by this point, but still a potent source of moisture. Weather forecast models are hinting that the remains of Beryl will pass over the lower Ohio River Valley around the Thursday timeframe, potentially reaching into the Tennessee Valley. Will be watching for the potential for more- organized and widespread rainfall as we approach the end of the workweek, though still too early to get more specific than that as low confidence remains as to where the remnants of Beryl will end up. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for much of the period. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Saturday... Mainly VFR with scattered cumulus this afternoon and some cirrus at times. A few showers/storms could skirt close to DAN this afternoon but majority appears to take a southeast path toward RDU. As we head through tonight, seems likely that fog forms again in the mountain valleys, so kept some MVFR at BLF/BCB while dropping LWB to LIFR at times. DAN could also see some fog if it rains nearby so have MVFR vsbys here. Any fog/stratus Sunday morning will lift to another scattered cumulus field by late morning. Average confidence in the above forecast. AVIATION OUTLOOK... The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it storms and any late night fog. Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook. && .CLIMATE... As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Record highs for July 6th. Not expecting any but could be close at Lynchburg. Saturday 07/06/2024 Site Record High/Year Forecast Bluefield 92/2010 82 Danville 102 1990 95 Lynchburg 98 2010 96 Roanoke 100 1999 94 Blacksburg 94 2010 88 && .EQUIPMENT... KFCX radar is being worked on today by technicians. BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Rainfall for Friday July 5th will be missing, until we get data retrieved. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058- 059. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...WP CLIMATE...WP EQUIPMENT...PM/WP