306
FXUS61 KRLX 080227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1027 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend. Increasing
southwesterly flow yields building heat and humidity for Monday
and Tuesday. Better rain chances mid-week with Beryl remnants.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1027 PM Sunday...

The forecast remains on track this evening, and therefore not
requiring any updates at this time.

As of 717 PM Sunday...

Radar trends this evening depict the vast majority of showers
and storms remaining south and east of the mountains, so opted
to trend down with POPs heading into the evening. Otherwise,
temps/dewpoints/sky conditions remain on track with current
observations at the time of writing so no additional changes
were made.

As of 230 PM Sunday...

Overall should be a calm and clear near-term period across the
bulk of the area. Some convection is starting to fire along the
VA/NC border, but current trajectories have that staying SE of
our CWA. However, some hi-res guidance does suggest some shower
or storm potential right along the border, so some low-end POPs
were introduced on the border near and SW of Beckley this
afternoon. Otherwise, some valley fog is expected again tonight,
but probably not quite as extensive as last night. Overnight
temps should drop into the 60s for most. Hot and partly to
mostly sunny tomorrow, with lower elevation highs in the low to
mid-90s, and upper 70s to 80s in the higher terrain. The light
S`ly flow should help bring the moisture east of the mountains
up to the border, and so tomorrow afternoon we have chance POPs
along the entire eastern border of the CWA. Fortunately, though
dew points should be a bit higher than today, it looks like
there should be enough dry air mixing down to keep heat index
values under 100F, thus no Heat Advisory was contemplated at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

Tuesday will be another hot and humid day with heat index values
approaching triple digits. Will need to keep an eye on potential for
a heat advisory for at least a portion of the lower elevations.
Despite rather poor mid-level lapse rates could see isolated
diurnally enhanced convection with the best chances closer to the
higher terrain Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level troughing in the
northern stream approaches the Middle Ohio Valley Tuesday night as
moisture from the remnants of Beryl begins to move into the region.
This should yield increased chances for showers and storms much of
the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly when the enhanced moisture arrives and at
least some models depict unrestricted insolation early in the day
while others temper warming with ample cloud cover. Will need to
keep an eye on potential for some stronger storms with deep layer
shear around 30KTs if better early insolation is realized. Better
synoptic forcing is expected to remain west of us with better
chances for sustained efficient rainfall, but will still need to
monitor for localized water issues with storm motions out of the
southwest at only 15-20KTs with deep warm cloud depths and
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

The northern stream frontal position forecast gets muddled by the
extra tropical low, but should eventually see frontal passage
sometime Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models have trended
drier in the wake of frontal passage with tropical moisture
remaining largely confined to the Atlantic Coastal Plain for the end
of the week. This should yield decreasing chances for diurnal
convection, with most, if not all activity confined to the higher
terrain in diurnal upslope.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 717 PM Sunday...

The evening starts off under VFR conditions, but a growing
potential for fog then transpires along the higher terrain late
tonight into early Monday morning. EKN will yield the highest
possibility for fog development tonight, but did opt to hint at
some development in the vicinity of the terminal at CRW as well.
Otherwise, fog erosion after daybreak will give way to under
quiet weather day under fair weather clouds and VFR conditions.
Winds will be light throughout the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this evening; Medium in fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog development
overnight tonight could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 07/08/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Mountain river valley fog possible again on Monday night. Brief
IFR possible in and near thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK