594
FXUS61 KRLX 070733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend. Increasing
southwesterly flow yields heat and humidity Monday and Tuesday.
Rain chances return for mid-week and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

High pressure cruising by to the northwest of the area will keep
conditions tranquil through tonight. There will be a fair
weather cumulus field atop the mixed layer this afternoon, and
patchy stratocumulus atop the mixed layer at other times as
well, including at night, with the mixed layer elevated.

With not much of a subsidence inversion left, we might be able
to stand up a shower or thundershower over the southern
mountains this afternoon, if the cold front that crossed early
Saturday morning is able to reverse gears and drift closer,
along with its associated dew point gradient.

The stratocu, and high cloud streaming across the central
Appalachians, in upper level southwest flow streaming moisture
northeastward from the Gulf including out of Beryl, could
hinder fog formation early this morning, and again overnight
tonight.

Central guidance is consistent with temperatures in this benign
pattern, with minimal spread. After a comfortably cool early
morning, temperatures climb above normal for highs today, around
90 across much of the lowlands, but then settle back to around
normal for lows tonight. Went a bit lower on lows tonight in
valleys away from rivers given the mainly clear, calm conditions
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Sunday...

For the beginning of the week, High pressure remains overhead and
across the Appalachians, from the Deep South up through New England.
A cold front will be traversing the Midwest and a stationary front
will be to our east.

Monday and Tuesday certainly look to be the hottest days of the week
too. High temperatures across the lowlands will be in the lower to
mid 90s and dew points will rise into the 70s again with southwest
to southerly flow aloft taking over. That said, heat index values
could approach the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon, which
means a couple heat advisories could be on the horizon this week.

After a dry weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms
return Monday afternoon along the mountains and our eastern
periphery. More chances will occur Tuesday with a front which
will approach from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 AM Sunday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain into Wednesday
with the front which will cross the area and then retreat back
west as warm front. The GFS and the NAM both show precipitable
water values upwards of 2.00" inches across the area.

Eyeing the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl which will move up
the Mississippi River Valley and into the Midwest/Great Lakes
this week as an extratropical, cold-core storm. Models are
showing it grazing our area Thursday, but ultimately passing to
our north over Ohio and Michigan. That said, opted to keep
chance PoPs.

Temperatures look to remain above normal through the week with
the upper 80s and a few lower 90s being common in the lowlands
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

High pressure with its clear, calm conditions will promote
areas of IFR to VLIFR dense fog early Sunday morning given
sufficient low level moisture in place. With the exception of
BKW, all terminals will see a deterioration to IFR to VLIFR
visibility and/or ceilings shortly after 8Z, and continuing
until sunrise.

High thin cloud is likely to keep valley fog thinner across
southeast portions of the area. Patchy stratocumulus forming may
further complicate the overnight fog forecast across central
WV. Either of these factors may affect CRW, CKB or EKN. After
the erosion of fog/stratus Sunday morning, VFR conditions take
center stage once more, with an afternoon cumulus field.

High pressure will keep flow light surface and aloft through
Sunday, generally northeast to north during the day. Sunday
night will begin clear and calm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog development
overnight could vary from the forecast, owing in part to high
cloud southeast, and patchy stratocu.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Valley fog possible again overnight Sunday night into early
Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM