049
FXUS61 KRLX 071048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
648 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend. Increasing
southwesterly flow yields increasing heat and humidity Monday
and Tuesday. Rain chances return for mid-week and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track, with valley fog beginning to dissipate.

As of 300 AM Sunday...

High pressure cruising by to the northwest of the area will keep
conditions tranquil through tonight. There will be a fair
weather cumulus field atop the mixed layer this afternoon, and
patchy stratocumulus atop the mixed layer at other times as
well, including at night, with the mixed layer elevated.

With not much of a subsidence inversion left, we might be able
to stand up a shower or thundershower over the southern
mountains this afternoon, if the cold front that crossed early
Saturday morning is able to reverse gears and drift closer,
along with its associated dew point gradient.

The stratocu, and high cloud streaming across the central
Appalachians, in upper level southwest flow streaming moisture
northeastward from the Gulf including out of Beryl, could
hinder fog formation early this morning, and again overnight
tonight.

Central guidance is consistent with temperatures in this benign
pattern, with minimal spread. After a comfortably cool early
morning, temperatures climb above normal for highs today, around
90 across much of the lowlands, but then settle back to around
normal for lows tonight. Went a bit lower on lows tonight in
valleys away from rivers given the mainly clear, calm conditions
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Sunday...

For the beginning of the week, High pressure remains overhead and
across the Appalachians, from the Deep South up through New England.
A cold front will be traversing the Midwest and a stationary front
will be to our east.

Monday and Tuesday certainly look to be the hottest days of the week
too. High temperatures across the lowlands will be in the lower to
mid 90s and dew points will rise into the 70s again with southwest
to southerly flow aloft taking over. That said, heat index values
could approach the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon, which
means a couple heat advisories could be on the horizon this week.

After a dry weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms
return Monday afternoon along the mountains and our eastern
periphery. More chances will occur Tuesday with a front which
will approach from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 AM Sunday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain into Wednesday
with the front which will cross the area and then retreat back
west as warm front. The GFS and the NAM both show precipitable
water values upwards of 2.00" inches across the area.

Eyeing the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl which will move up
the Mississippi River Valley and into the Midwest/Great Lakes
this week as an extratropical, cold-core storm. Models are
showing it grazing our area Thursday, but ultimately passing to
our north over Ohio and Michigan. That said, opted to keep
chance PoPs.

Temperatures look to remain above normal through the week with
the upper 80s and a few lower 90s being common in the lowlands
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

High pressure continues to promote tranquil weather with light
flow surface and aloft. There is likely to be an afternoon
cumulus field, as well as patchy stratocumulus this morning and
tonight. Stratocu tonight may lower and form MVFR ceilings in
the mountains, affecting EKN and/or BKW.

Otherwise, the mainly clear, calm conditions will again allow
for valley fog overnight tonight, with IFR to VLIFR dense fog
most likely at EKN, and MVFR mist most likely at CRW, CKB and
PKB. High thin cloud is likely to keep valley fog thinner across
southeast portions of the area. The patchy stratocu may further
complicate the overnight fog forecast tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog development
overnight tonight could vary from the forecast, owing in part
to high cloud southeast, and patchy stratocu.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 07/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in and near thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM