Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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809 FXUS61 KRLX 071845 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend. Increasing southwesterly flow yields building heat and humidity for Monday and Tuesday. Better rain chances mid-week with Beryl remnants. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Overall should be a calm and clear near-term period across the bulk of the area. Some convection is starting to fire along the VA/NC border, but current trajectories have that staying SE of our CWA. However, some hi-res guidance does suggest some shower or storm potential right along the border, so some low-end POPs were introduced on the border near and SW of Beckley this afternoon. Otherwise, some valley fog is expected again tonight, but probably not quite as extensive as last night. Overnight temps should drop into the 60s for most. Hot and partly to mostly sunny tomorrow, with lower elevation highs in the low to mid-90s, and upper 70s to 80s in the higher terrain. The light S`ly flow should help bring the moisture east of the mountains up to the border, and so tomorrow afternoon we have chance POPs along the entire eastern border of the CWA. Fortunately, though dew points should be a bit higher than today, it looks like there should be enough dry air mixing down to keep heat index values under 100F, thus no Heat Advisory was contemplated at this time. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 155 PM Sunday... Tuesday will be another hot and humid day with heat index values approaching triple digits. Will need to keep an eye on potential for a heat advisory for at least a portion of the lower elevations. Despite rather poor mid-level lapse rates could see isolated diurnally enhanced convection with the best chances closer to the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level troughing in the northern stream approaches the Middle Ohio Valley Tuesday night as moisture from the remnants of Beryl begins to move into the region. This should yield increased chances for showers and storms much of the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly when the enhanced moisture arrives and at least some models depict unrestricted insolation early in the day while others temper warming with ample cloud cover. Will need to keep an eye on potential for some stronger storms with deep layer shear around 30KTs if better early insolation is realized. Better synoptic forcing is expected to remain west of us with better chances for sustained efficient rainfall, but will still need to monitor for localized water issues with storm motions out of the southwest at only 15-20KTs with deep warm cloud depths and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 PM Sunday... The northern stream frontal position forecast gets muddled by the extra tropical low, but should eventually see frontal passage sometime Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models have trended drier in the wake of frontal passage with tropical moisture remaining largely confined to the Atlantic Coastal Plain for the end of the week. This should yield decreasing chances for diurnal convection, with most, if not all activity confined to the higher terrain in diurnal upslope. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 125 PM Sunday... VFR conditions should prevail through the period, outside of any valley fog that forms tonight. Valley fog isn`t expected to be quite as widespread as last night, thanks to having another day of drying after the last rains. Elkins is the most likely to see denser fog, and they are brought down hard for a couple hours just before sunrise. Patchy fog could also impact CKB and CRW, and a few hours of MVFR was put into those sites as a signal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog impacts; high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of dense fog development overnight tonight could vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Brief IFR possible in and near thunderstorms Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JP NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...FK