657
FNUS75 KRIW 191726
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Cates Draw...Casper Dispatch
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

A slight (15%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm to impact the site
today. There will be some showers and thunderstorms around, but current
models keep these mainly to the west and south. However, these storms
could produce gusty outflow winds around 40 mph. Winds will generally
be out of the north to slightly northeast, with gusts around 20 mph,
outside any erratic storm outflow winds. Storms chances decrease with
the setting sun.

Similar story for Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
once again be possible, perhaps with a slightly better chance (20%-30%).
Outflow winds would again be the main concern.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Areas of smoke in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......15 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph.
Ridgetop wind.......North 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......Increasing to around 11000 ft AGL by 1500.
Transport winds.....North 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to excellent after 1400, then
                    decreasing after 1800.
Haines Index........3 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  5   10  10  25  35  30
Weather cov.....    ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....    SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  15  15  15  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............82  85  87  89  90  90  89
RH..............34  29  27  25  24  23  23
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   10  11  11
20 FT wind gust.12  13  13  14  16  18  18
Ridge wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Ridge wind spd..15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 7.5 9.0 11  10  10  9.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  18  20  20  21
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100079  115 146 174 173 167 174

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) becoming mostly
                    clear overnight. Areas of smoke early in the
                    evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........Around 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 11 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph until 2200, then light around 5 mph with a
                    favored north direction.
Ridgetop wind.......North 15 to 20 mph until 2300, then northeast
                    around 10 mph until 0500, then southeast.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL until 2000, then 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 21 mph until 2300, then east 8
                    to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 2000, then poor overnight.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........30  30  35  20  25  25  30  25  20  20  20  20
Weather cov.....    ARS
Weather type....    SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............89  88  85  80  77  74  72  69  67  66  65  64
RH..............24  24  27  31  38  41  46  49  54  57  59  61
20 FT wind dir..NE  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..11  11  10  8   6   6   4   4   4   4   3   4
20 FT wind gust.17  18  14  13  10  8   6   6   6   6       6
Ridge wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE
Ridge wind spd..20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...10  10  2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.21  18  17  15  13  12  9   9   9   9   8   9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/1000181 157 33  8   6   5   4   4   4   4   3   4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......25 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1000, then northeast 8 to 13
                    mph with gusts to around 20 mph for the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......East around 10 mph until 0900. North-northeast
                    around 20 mph for the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Increasing to around 9500 ft AGL after 1100.
Transport winds.....East around 9 mph until 0700, then north 10 to
                    20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900 increasing to very good
                    after 1200.
Haines Index........2 to 3.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  20  15  10  10  10  5   15  20  30  30  25
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............63  66  70  76  80  82  84  85  86  86  86  85
RH..............67  61  54  45  36  30  27  25  24  23  23  24
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   10  11
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   8   10  11  13  13  14  16  17
Ridge wind dir..SE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.5 7.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.5
Transp wind dir.E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   10  12  13  14  15  15  16  17  18
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10004   4   7   17  53  82  114 120 115 119 127 134

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast
winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. East
winds around 8 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Wittmann
Requested by...M. McLaughlin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418394.3/RIW
.DELDT 07/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wycpc@firenet.gov