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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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468 FXUS65 KRIW 041750 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1150 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More isolated in nature for rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon Bighorn Basin and eastern Counties, but severe weather is not expected. - Mainly dry and a warming trend through the long term forecast with increasing fire weather risk the main hazard going forward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 IR currently depicts the shortwave trough pushing east into the upper Great Plains with northwest flow aloft continuing over the CWA. A couple light rain showers are pushing through Natrona County that will dissipate through the early morning hours with no impacts expected. One last but weaker wave will pass through mid to late afternoon once again with less PVA associated with it. As such, more isolated in nature will be thunderstorm coverage developing off the Absarokas once again (20-30% coverage) push east through the Bighorn Basin and into Natrona County in the evening hours through sunset before dissipating as it loses any instability. Otherwise, unseasonable cooler than average temperatures during the afternoon with some breezy westerly winds developing my early afternoon through sunset. Strongest gusty over 30-35 mph for points across Sweetwater County and into the Green River Basin. Less than 20-30 mph for other areas with most remaining dry throughout. Severe weather is not expected as there is much weaker ingredients than previous day, in which it did not occur as well. Some stronger than synoptic gusts could occur near any storm activity but nothing significant expected. The main story moving forward into the long term forecast will be mainly dry conditions with a warming trend over the weekend and into next week. Higher heights centered near the Sierra Nevadas will continue to build with increasing convergence aloft with ridging extending through the upper Rockies from Friday onward. Some breezy afternoons with Saturday the strongest day with gusts up to 30-40 mph likely due to the strongest gradient occurring. This will bring elevated fire weather risk to the forefront moving forward, and again, Saturday being the day that stands out. With the weaker upper level flow, there is still a small chance for higher terrain storm development associated with air mass type occurrence, but otherwise, dry for most with less than 10 percent chance for this Monday onward. This blocking high will keep a deep low coming out of the GOA to remain well off the West Coast pushing the PFJ well into Canada as well. No significant weather impacts outside of elevated fire weather concerns moving forward. Enjoy the cooler temperatures for the 4th (albeit not as cool as last year), before the heat returns pushing well into the 90s east of the Divide and mid to upper 80s to the west starting Monday onward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail across central and northwest Wyoming through the 18Z TAF period. Winds are generally light west to northwest, and are expected to increase through the afternoon with wind gusts 20 to 30 knots possible. A brief rain shower is possible near KCOD and KWRL late afternoon to early evening. Reductions in visibility are possible as well as gusty and erratic winds. Lighter winds expected overnight and through tomorrow. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Gross