Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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072 FXUS65 KRIW 010740 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 140 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front today brings cooler temperatures and rain chances, mainly across the northern half of Wyoming. - Rain chances for northern Wyoming through midweek, with cool temperatures. - Warm and dry conditions looking more likely into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A cold front moves through the area today. As a result, it will be noticeably cooler, especially compared to the highs yesterday that were in the 90s for many locations, with a few 100s noted. Highs today peak in the 70s for most, with some low 80s in central Wyoming. This front also brings the chance of rain. As it sweeps through the area this morning, a line of showers and storms accompanies it. The most likely places to get rain are across northern Wyoming. As the line tracks southeastward, lesser chances occur over the basins, such as the Green River and Wind River Basins; chances for these places are more in the 20% to 30% range. The best chances continue across the northern part of the state through the day as broad trough influences the area. Outside an isolated (about 20% chance) shower, southern Wyoming should remain dry. Some of the storms across the north (mainly the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County) could be on the stronger side, with gusty outflow wind or hail. The better chances for strong to severe storms occurs towards Johnson County and northern Natrona County. A tight pressure gradient persists today as well, with afternoon wind gusts 30 to 40 mph across the Wind Corridor, and lesser gusts elsewhere. These gusts decrease into tonight. Precipitation continues across the north tonight as the broad trough remains in place. They should be on a decreasing trend, however, by Tuesday morning. Isolated (15% to 30%) chances continue across the north Tuesday, mainly over the mountains. Highs Tuesday will be similar to that of today, maybe a few degrees higher. An upper-low moving down from Canada and into the Dakotas brings moisture ahead of it on Wednesday. Rain chances (20% to 50%) occur over far northern Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. This also brings a breezy to windy afternoon. As this low continues to move down, cooler air makes its way into the area for Thursday, with highs back into the 70s. Rain chances also continue across the north and portions of central Wyoming. The night of the 4th is currently looking dry as the afternoon convection ends around sunset Thursday, but some lingering showers cannot be ruled out at this time. High pressure begins to build in over the western U.S. for this weekend, favoring warmer and drier conditions. Long range models are showing the possibility for some systems to pass over eastern Wyoming, which may bring some rain chances; confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 954 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will linger through the overnight hours with most terminals not seeing any impacts. KCPR would be the only terminal that may see a stray shower or gusty outflow from any nearby showers. Monday morning, a cold front will move west to east across the region. Showers are possible with the front, but confidence is not high on intensity of these showers, so have included several PROB30 groups to account for any stronger showers or storms that might occur along and behind the front. The cold front will not bring a strong wind shift, but gusty west winds will occur ahead of and behind the front for most terminals Monday morning. By midday, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the front. Most terminals will have a chance for showers and storms through the end of the period. PROB30 groups have been included at several terminals to highlight this threat. KJAC, KCOD, and KWRL are the terminals that will likely see the most impact from any showers or thunderstorms associated with the front. Expect to see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Conditions will likely fluctuate from MVFR to IFR, as showers and thunderstorms move through terminals. All terminals will likely return to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period. Mountain tops will be obscured at times during the period, especially as the front moves through the state. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Dziewaltowski