Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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003 FXUS65 KRIW 011014 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 414 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front today brings cooler temperatures and rain chances, mainly across the northern half of Wyoming. - Rain chances for northern Wyoming through midweek, with cool temperatures. - Warm and dry conditions looking more likely into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A cold front moves through the area today. As a result, it will be noticeably cooler, especially compared to the highs yesterday that were in the 90s for many locations, with a few 100s noted. Highs today peak in the 70s for most, with some low 80s in central Wyoming. This front also brings the chance of rain. As it sweeps through the area this morning, a line of showers and storms accompanies it. The most likely places to get rain are across northern Wyoming. As the line tracks southeastward, lesser chances occur over the basins, such as the Green River and Wind River Basins; chances for these places are more in the 20% to 30% range. The best chances continue across the northern part of the state through the day as broad trough influences the area. Outside an isolated (about 20% chance) shower, southern Wyoming should remain dry. Some of the storms across the north (mainly the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County) could be on the stronger side, with gusty outflow wind or hail. The better chances for strong to severe storms occurs towards Johnson County and northern Natrona County. A tight pressure gradient persists today as well, with afternoon wind gusts 30 to 40 mph across the Wind Corridor, and lesser gusts elsewhere. These gusts decrease into tonight. Precipitation continues across the north tonight as the broad trough remains in place. They should be on a decreasing trend, however, by Tuesday morning. Isolated (15% to 30%) chances continue across the north Tuesday, mainly over the mountains. Highs Tuesday will be similar to that of today, maybe a few degrees higher. An upper-low moving down from Canada and into the Dakotas brings moisture ahead of it on Wednesday. Rain chances (20% to 50%) occur over far northern Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. This also brings a breezy to windy afternoon. As this low continues to move down, cooler air makes its way into the area for Thursday, with highs back into the 70s. Rain chances also continue across the north and portions of central Wyoming. The night of the 4th is currently looking dry as the afternoon convection ends around sunset Thursday, but some lingering showers cannot be ruled out at this time. High pressure begins to build in over the western U.S. for this weekend, favoring warmer and drier conditions. Long range models are showing the possibility for some systems to pass over eastern Wyoming, which may bring some rain chances; confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 410 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions to start the period for all TAF sites and should remain so throughout. A cold front will push through the CWA this morning with light rain showers at JAC shortly after the start of the period for this morning. More widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with highest confidence locations a tempo group after 20-21Z through about 01-03Z. Lowest confidence only carrying VCTS during this timeframe at LND, RIW, WRL, and RKS. Models indicate a sporadic coverage in these areas but this should all diminish towards sunset. Otherwise, mid level ceilings will lift to the upper levels scattering out west of the Divide overnight with light winds into Tuesday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Lowe