Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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937 FXUS65 KRIW 021705 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1105 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly the northern half of the CWA. - Warmer and dryer the remainder of the week and weekend with increasing fire weather risk. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 IR currently depicts the main shortwave pushing across the northern Rockies filling with warmer cloud tops as it loses its diffluence aloft up the longwave pattern towards the upper Great Plains. Radar still shows some light rain showers ongoing for the northern Bighorns and eastern counties that will continue its eastward progression through the morning hours. Otherwise, the backside of the low with a weaker mid level support trough with spark more isolated storms (30-40% coverage) Tuesday afternoon across the northern half of the CWA. Short term models are in fair agreement of redevelopment by 1-2PM from Yellowstone to the northern Bighorn Basin pushing east through the afternoon and early evening. These will diminish towards sunset once the atmosphere losing daytime heating and the instability. As such, severe weather is not expected outside of some gustier outflows through the basin and towards the I-25 corridor of Johnson County. Otherwise, expect the cooler than average temperatures to continue for Tuesday until the longwave trough pushes east and the main finger of the PFJ retreats back to the north. A strong upper level high will being to build from the desert Southwest with increasing convergence aloft toward the end of the week and especially over the weekend. Wednesday will see the highest winds as the gradient as a weaker front pushes through with another shortwave. Isolated higher elevation activity is expected with more of a limited coverage due to lack of low level moisture, and as such, lower humidity values are expected into the longer term forecast as well. Beyond Wednesday, some isolated chances for higher terrain onward into the weekend with mainly dry conditions and a warming trend expected for the entire CWA. 90s back into the fold east of the Divide and 80s to the west as the aforementioned high center to the southwest continues to build and extend through the upper Rockies. No other significant weather is forecasted at this time into the longer term outlook. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1059 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Primarily VFR conditions expected to prevail across central and northwest Wyoming TAF terminals through the 18Z TAF period. There is the potential for a brief shower/thunderstorm to impact KCOD this afternoon between 19Z and 23Z. In addition, showers and thunderstorms may develop within the VC of other TAF terminals and result in gusty outflow winds. Gusty 15 to 25+ knot winds are expected across nearly all TAF terminals through this afternoon and early evening, decreasing overnight, then increasing once again tomorrow late morning. More showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon, mainly across northern Wyoming. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Gross