497
FXUS65 KREV 072047
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
147 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Prolonged heatwave continues through Thursday. Gradual cooling
  trend late week into the next weekend.

* Potential increase in breezes and thunderstorm chances starting
  Thursday into next weekend, yielding fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* The heatwave continues with moderate to major HeatRisk forecast
  for many lower elevation areas through Thursday. One trend
  we`ve seen is with very dry air persisting, overnight lows will
  have a tendency to be below NBM guidance. Fairly pronounced in
  mountain communities, which can mitigate the impacts of daytime
  heat and yield minor-moderate HeatRisk levels. Given this, we
  are going to end the Heat Advisories for Tahoe and most of the
  Eastern Sierra zone past today. Heat Warnings will continue for
  W Nevada along with Advisories for NE California and Mono below
  6000` with plenty of record highs and warm lows to fall the next
  few days.

* Wildfires to our immediate west in the Sierra are not showing a
  lot of activity again today. The 12z HRRR Smoke is probably
  overdone. So barring a significant uptick in fire activity,
  we`re not anticipating appreciable haze/smoke impacts on our
  side of the mountains. The Shelly Fire west of Mt Shasta has
  produced some high altitude smoke that is passing overhead
  today, and could again tomorrow.

* Confidence is increasing in the afternoon/evening winds bumping
  up into potential critical fire weather category starting
  Thursday as the upper ridge slides to the east. Gusts on the
  order of 30-40 MPH possible each day in the typical areas from
  Susanville-Reno- Mammoth. NBM has 40-50% chances of gusts 35+
  MPH each day Thursday into the next weekend, which this far out
  is a decent signal.

* Of lower confidence but still worth tracking is a potential
  moisture resurgence northward into our area as that ridge moves
  eastward. NBM t-storm POPs rise into the 10-25% range starting
  Friday in both mountains and valleys. With our ongoing heatwave
  further drying vegetation, any lightning could result in new
  fire starts.

-Chris


&&

.AVIATION...

Typical afternoon W/NW breezes with VFR conditions expected
through Tuesday. Hot temperatures could result in density altitude
concerns for some aircraft each afternoon into next week.

-Chris

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 7th-13th at Reno-
Tahoe International Airport (KRNO)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date  Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year)
------   -----------------   ----------------   --------------------
July 7        106/69            102F (2014)          68F (2001,2004)

July 8        105/70            104F (2017)          71F (2014)

July 9        105/69            104F (2021)          69F (2021)

July 10       104/68            108F (2002)          72F (2021)

July 11       104/68            108F (2002)          74F (2014)

July 12       103/69            104F (2005,2021)     74F (2002)

July 13       100/69            103F (2014)          70F (2014,2018)

Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is 10
days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. With 3 days of 100+ so far in this
streak, there is a good chance of tying this record but whether or not
we break it is less certain. The record for consecutive days of 105 or
greater is only 2 days, which has occurred 6 times in climate history,
most recently July 2023. Today will tie that record.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday CAZ070-071-073.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

$$