657
FXUS62 KRAH 261828
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

* A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM today.

* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across
  central NC this afternoon and evening.

Clear and sunny skies to start the day will foster unimpeded daytime
heating with highs today in the lower to mid 90s. Combined with
lower/mid 70s BL dewpoints, this will support strong and robust
destabilization across the region.

Thus far, convective development has been tied to terrain induced
differential heating and weak convergence along a lee-side sfc
trough across western NC. As storms evolve, cold-pool driven outflow
boundaries will become the primary mechanism for additional storm
development and organization, with main activity remaining across
the western Piedmont, per recent trends in the hi-res CAMs.

While shear remains weak, the presence of high D-CAPE values (1200-
1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for locally damaging
wind gusts with the strongest storms.

In addition to the severe storm threat, dangerous heat will persist
with afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower to mid 100s,
posing heat related risks, especially for those spending extended
time outdoors.

Convection will die out after loss of heating. Lows tonight should
be in the low to mid 70s, lowest west where better coverage of
convection is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

* Continued Hot with Heat Index Values in the upper 90s to lower
  100s.

* Chance of isolated severe storms, primarily in the western and
  south central Piedmont.

The ridge that has persisted for several days over the Carolinas
will shift ever so slightly eastward as a weakening mid-level
circulation center off the Florida and Southeast US coast moves
onshore.  This will cause temperatures to drop slightly, from lower
to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, falling
shy of advisory criteria.

Focused terrain induced differential heating and weak convergence
along a lee-side sfc trough across western NC, a moist and very
unstable airmass will support the development of isolated(eastern
NC) to scattered showers and storms(western NC) Friday afternoon and
evening. Weak shear will keep the threat of organized severe storms
low. As a result of this, there will be a chance of isolated strong
to severe pulse type thunderstorms throughout the Piedmont but
especially towards the western and southern areas. Due to weak
steering from mid-upper level winds, these storms will be slow
moving and meandering. Any significant movement will be a result of
outflow boundary re-triggering. The continued presence of high D-
CAPE values (1200-1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for
locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

Convection will diminish throughout the Piedmont overnight with the
western Piedmont being the last to cease. Overnight lows in the
lower 70s and dew points persisting in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

* Little change in the stagnant/weak-flow regime and above normal
  temps through Mon, yielding daily late-day storm chances, highest
  across the NW.

* Convection chances increase by Tue, lasting into Wed when temps
  will trend down closer to normal.

During this period, as weak surface troughing holds over the NC
Piedmont, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast states and
Carolinas will move little through the weekend, meandering over the
S Appalachians before weakening further to a broad weak trough by
Mon. While we`ll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the
sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep
layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather
systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the
forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the low-mid
90s, as low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each
day. Expect late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas
as terrain convection drifts into the area. With at least moderate
CAPE daily Sat-Mon but very weak bulk shear, we should see pulse-
type storm clusters with a low threat for organized severe storms.
With humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the
experimental Heat Risk suggest a continued low-end heat-health risk,
mainly for those without adequate cooling and those exerting
themselves outdoors, but overall the most intense heat will have
subsided. By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift
through ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an
increase in mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface
cold front gradually approaches from the NW with a preceding
sharpening of the Piedmont trough. This improving flow aloft along
with a prefrontal increase in PW will prompt greater and earlier
storm coverage Tue/Wed, with more cloudiness. Expect highs to trend
closer to normal, 90-95 Tue and around 90 Wed. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Highest coverage of storms and associated sub-
VFR restrictions are expected across the western terminals (KINT and
KGSO) this afternoon and evening before dissipating from loss of
heating. Cannot rule out patchy ground fog at fog-prone locations
like KRWI. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions through
the TAF period ending at 18z Friday.

Outlook: The best chance of storms on Friday will once again be
focused across the western terminals. Beyond that, a daily pattern
of diurnally driven convection and patchy early morning fog is
expected through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/Skari
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH