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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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386 FXUS62 KRAH 081928 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 328 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal zone extending from Chesapeake Bay through central North Carolina will weaken further today before dissipating tonight. Mid and upper level high pressure will build over the area through mid week, before another cold front approaches Wednesday night. This front will then stall out and hold over the western and central Carolinas through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 925 AM Monday... Water vapor imagery this morning depicted narrow mid-level ridging along the eastern seaboard. To our east, a mid-upper low continues to spiral off the Carolina coast. This low will remain quasi- stationary and offshore today, thanks in part to a slowly meandering MCV currently over our southern Piedmont this morning. This feature will slowly ooze eastward today across the Sandhills/central Piedmont, before weakening and diving to our south through early Tuesday morning. At the sfc, a weak boundary was observed extending from the mouth of Chesapeake Bay ssw through our central to southern Piedmont. This feature will migrate westward today before dissipating through tonight. While CAMs continue to suggest less coverage today compared to recent days, given the presence of this decaying sfc boundary, and the slow moving mid-level impulse, still think we`ll see some development of showers and a few isolated storms later this morning through this evening. Think that we`ll see greatest coverage over the southern/western Piedmont, as well as some better coverage perhaps in the southern Coastal Plain as sea-breeze induced convection penetrates inland later this morning. H8/H9 flow is relatively onshore wrt to the coast, and thus any sea breeze convection that develops should be able to penetrate inland pretty good today. Lapse rates and shear are pitiful today, and thus severe storms don`t appear likely. However, given how water loaded this atmosphere is, can`t rule out an isolated stronger gust with any deeper pulse storms. Best chance would appear to be in the southern Coastal Plain, where low-level lapse rates may steepen a bit more compared to areas north and west. But even there, the probability seems low. However, given weak steering flow, isolated flooding will be possible today with any heavier showers/storms. Given some cloud cover expected today, temperatures should max out in the upper 80s/lower 90s, with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will remain warm in the mid 70s, with some patchy fog possible especially across southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Very little changes with our weather pattern, and again expect convective coverage to peak at scattered, focused across our west sections and southeast. The narrow mid-upper level ridge continues to build across central NC, while a diffuse MSLP pattern with weak surface winds and continued dewpoints mostly in the 70s will contribute to a weak wind profile through the column and, once again, slow-moving and outflow-driven convective clusters that could drop isolated heavy rain. With higher res models like the RAP and HREF members showing lower storm coverage and an earlier demise than what we`ve seen the last couple of days, the resulting reduction in convective debris clouds that might hinder heating combined with thicknesses about 5-8 m above normal suggests that we`ll see temps a bit warmer than today. Expect highs in the low-mid 90s which will push HeatRisk into the high-end Moderate and low-end Major categories. Lows will again be mostly in the 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 308 AM Monday... * Typical summertime pattern through the extended with high humidity * Hottest temperatures Wed/Sun and lowest highs Fri * Highest shower/storm chances Thu into Sat The remnants of Beryl, after interacting with a mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest, will be located somewhere near IL/IN by early Wed. Little has changed with its overall track, with most ensemble and deterministic solutions taking this area of low pressure ENE into the Great Lakes and Canada by Thu/Fri. The system will bring a cold front near the area late Wed night to early Thu across the western NC mountains and then is still forecast to stall along or just west of the area into Sat. With the front not approaching until late Wed across the west, we will have another day of hot and humid conditions midweek as southerly flow remains well entrenched, if not more so. Heat indices could meet or exceed 105 in portions of the Triangle and Sandhills, with highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints near the low to mid 70s. Scattered showers and storms appear favored in the aftn/eve, especially across the west with the approaching front and pre- frontal trough. As the front gets hung up and stalls along or just west of the Piedmont Thu, guidance continues to show an area of low pressure forming along the SE US and riding up along the boundary through central/eastern NC late Thu into early Sat. This area of low pressure could be convectively induced as an MCV and/or through some interaction with an upper-level shortwave tracking toward the Carolinas from the western Atlantic. Either way, during this time, there continues to be deep moisture transport and anomalous PWATs of 2.1-2.3 inches (normals are about 1.4-1.5 in) to couple to the low- level frontal/trough convergence. WPC is currently placing our area in a Level 1 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Fri/Sat and this is quite reasonable given the mentioned factors. This will continue to be monitored as we get closer. As such, our highest rain chances still appear to be Thu into Sat. By the weekend, we will see more typical diurnal shower/storm chances, though somewhat drier conditions should take hold by Sun as WSW flow ensues with a trough axis building in from the west and ridging off the western Atlantic reasserting itself. A more typical lee trough looks to take over at the surface, with PoPs more toward climo. Temperature wise after Wed, highs trend to the 80s on Fri, coincident with highest rain chances. A return to the 90s, and consequently heat indices above 100, look in store Sat/Sun as the ridge builds back west with lesser rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 228 PM Monday... VFR conditions will largely prevail at all TAF sites over the next several hours. However, brief periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible from isolated showers/storms through this evening. Coverage overall, however, should be less compared to recent days. Fog and stratus appear possible tonight, primarily over the southern/western Piedmont (i.e. best chances for sub-VFR conditions at KFAY/KINT/KGSO). Any fog/stratus should lift by late Tuesday morning. Shower and storm chances on Tuesday should be fairly limited to the coast and mountain areas. Outlook: Coverage in showers/storms should be fairly limited again on Tuesday into early Wednesday. A boundary will stall over the area Thursday into the weekend inducing increasingly wet weather and potential for adverse aviation conditions. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 10: KRDU: 99/1993 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 8: KGSO: 76/2010 KRDU: 78/1986 KFAY: 79/2012 July 9: KGSO: 76/1987 KRDU: 74/2014 July 10: KGSO: 77/1981 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/1998 July 11: KGSO: 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 76/2019 July 12: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/2011 KFAY: 80/1935 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-023>028- 040>043-076>078-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...Luchetti CLIMATE...RAH