770
FXUS65 KPUB 052011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible over the
  southern I-25 corridor this afternoon and evening.

- Warmer on Saturday, a couple of strong to severe storms
  possible over the far southeast Plains.

- More widespread rain shower and thunderstorms expected Sunday,
  with a strong to severe thunderstorm possible.

- Daily chances for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms
  expected Monday through Thursday, though mostly over the
  mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Currently...radar indicates a few showers and thunderstorms across
the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, east into the Raton Mesa
region this afternoon.  Cumulus have been bubbling over the Rampart
Range and Wet Mountains as well based on satellite imagery.
Temperatures are quite nice for July, with mid 70s to mid 80s across
the region.

Rest of today and tonight...weak upper energy embedded in
northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across Colorado
through this evening.  Weak instability mainly over the higher
terrain will continue to spark isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity over the Pikes Peak Region, south along the Wet and
southern Sangre de Cristo Ranges.  A couple of these storms may
drift east off the Rampart Range and across El Paso County through
early evening.  A strong, to possibly severe storm or two may be
possible over the Raton Mesa, with lightning, hail approaching 1
inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph may be possible.  Expect
any shower and thunderstorm activity across the Pikes Peak Region to
quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and
as the upper wave moves southeast.  For areas across the Raton Mesa,
showers and thunderstorms will track southeast, clearing the area
overnight.  Overnight lows will fall into the 50s to lower 60s
across the Plains, with 40s over the San Luis Valley.

Saturday...northwest flow will continue throughout the day, with
more weak energy tracking southeast across the Plains.  Low level
flow is forecast to shift a bit more southwesterly by late morning,
with drier air out near the Continental Divide spreading eastward
into the I-25 corridor.  A few spotty critical fire weather
conditions may be possible Saturday afternoon out west, but not
enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time.  Across the
Plains, drier air will spread into the I-25 corridor, shunting
moisture out to near the Kansas border.  Models are split on shower
and thunderstorm development, with most guidance not overly enthused
about the potential.  Based on the the majority of guidance, have
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the far
southeast Plains by mid afternoon.  Much will depend on how far east
the drier air pushes.  SBCAPE values around 1800 j/kg and modest
shear may allow for a couple of strong to possibly severe storms
late Saturday afternoon, with the best potential east of Kim to
Lamar.  Hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60
mph may accompany stronger cells.  Temperatures will warm up
tomorrow, with max temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s across
the Plains, and 80s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Saturday Night: The first night of the weekend is expected to bring
quiet weather for south central and southeastern Colorado, though
there is a chance for thunderstorms over the plains. Northwest flow
with an embedded shortwave is anticipated for Saturday night, and
while synoptic support will be in place, dry conditions are expected
given the lack of any instability. With that said though, an outflow
reinforced westward retreating dryline may provide enough of a
surface boost to allow for elevated thunderstorms to blossom across
the far eastern plains and take advantage of instability aloft.
Confidence in any thunderstorm development is very low (<20%), but
if a storm develops, it could become strong to severe given shear in
place and the uptick in moisture and instability behind the dryline,
with hail the primary threat. Looking at temperatures, a mild night
is anticipated, with much of the region hovering around and just
slightly below seasonal values for early July.

Sunday: The last day of the weekend will bring a more active weather
day to the region. Northwest flow will continue, but another, more
amplified wave, will push over south central and southeastern
Colorado. Along with that, a cold front will race southward during
the day, bringing with it increased moisture. With the forcing and
support from the wave and cold front, along with the uptick in
moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for
much of the area, but especially along the eastern mountains and I-
25 corridor region where forcing will be greatest. Given the
magnitude of shear and instability that is expected to be present, a
strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorm or two is possible. Any
precipitation during the afternoon and early evening hours will
dissipate during the mid to late evening hours as instability and
forcing both wane. Looking at temperatures, given the aforementioned
cold front, much of the lower elevations will drop to below seasonal
values, while the valleys and mountains remain around seasonal
values.

Monday - Thursday: For much of next week, a rinse and repeat type
pattern is expected. Northwest to northerly flow will remain in
place, with a ridge of high pressure slowly drifting eastward. While
forcing will be more meager and mostly driven by orographics,
moisture will not become scoured out. Given this, daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected, though mostly along the
mountains. Any precipitation present each day is anticipated to
lessen in coverage during the evening hours. Temperatures during
this period will slowly rebound back to around seasonal values for
early to mid July. With that said though, Monday will be below
seasonal values for much of the region given the cold front passage
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with a few wind
gusts near 20 kts this afternoon and early evening.

KCOS and KPUB...a couple of showers may be possible this afternoon
and evening at KCOS, with briefly reduced VIS and CIGS if they pass
across the terminal.  Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at both
KCOS and KPUB through Saturday afternoon. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY