130
FXUS65 KPUB 070447
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1047 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm winds are possible over the
  southeastern plains this afternoon

- Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected
  over the San Luis Valley, the La Garitas, and the southern
  portion of the upper Arkansas River Valley, however fuels are
  not critical, therefore no fire weather products will be
  issued.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday evening, with
  strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers and
  thunderstorms expected Monday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows cumulus
development across the higher terrain, and stretching from the
Palmer Divide, eastward to Kiowa County.  Radar is free and clear.
Drier air is currently mixing eastward across the Plains with
dewpoints falling.  Temperatures are also on the hotter side, with
80s and 90s across the Plains.

Rest of today...drier air continues to push eastward across the
Plains, and most model guidance continues to show afternoon shower
and thunderstorm activity remaining east in Kansas this afternoon
where deeper moisture exists.  The boundary that stretches from the
Palmer Divide, eastward bares watching out near Kiowa County, where
a few attempts to robust convection have sputtered.  There could be
one or two storms out that way.  The other area to watch would be
along the moisture boundary across Baca County.  Model guidance
continues to dry out our area, with convection east of the Kansas
border into this evening.  If storms can develop, elevated DCAPE
will lead to a wind risk.  Any storms that develop in our area will
shift east into Kansas pretty quickly.

Tonight...outflow from storms in Kansas will back westward advecting
moisture back across the Plains overnight.  A surface low is also
forecast to develop, helping to further draw moisture back across
the Plains.  Dewpoints in the 50s is expected, with a few model
guidance members having lower 60 dewpoint air near the Kansas
border.  With moisture pooling back across the Plains, low stratus
will fill in overnight.  There could be light precipitation out near
the Kansas border overnight.  Overnight lows will fall into the 50s
and 60s across the Plains and 40s across the San Luis Valley.

Sunday...active weather look likely by Sunday afternoon.  Northwest
flow aloft with and embedded shortwave is forecast to move across
the region by the afternoon hours.  Low level, moist upslope flow
will keep the overnight moisture pooled across the Plains.
Temperatures look to warm into the 70s and 80s by the afternoon.
SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg are expected by the afternoon,
and 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts will be sufficient for strong, to
possibly severe thunderstorm development.  Expect initial
thunderstorm development across the Palmer Divide by midday,
spreading south along the I-25 corridor and into the Plains through
the afternoon.  Given the parameters mentioned above, outflow winds
to near 60 mph and hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter will be
possible with stronger storms.  In addition, given the shear and
profiles, high-res guidance is developing helicity track with a
couple of stronger storms across the Palmer Divide, south across
Pueblo County with initial development, so there could be a small
tornado threat.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Sunday Night: The end of the weekend is anticipated to have some
active weather across portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A shortwave embedded within northwest flow will be pushing
over the area bringing heightened support and forcing. Along with
that, this wave will have shoved a cold front southward earlier in
day, with better moisture behind the front. Given all of this, rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected for most of the area, but
particularly across the eastern mountains and plains. Showers and
storms are expected to blossom earlier in the day Sunday and persist
and/or continue to initiate during the early to mid evening hours as
the wave treks to the southeast. With the anticipated shear,
moisture, and instability, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible, with the primary hazards being severe wind gusts and large
hail. With all of that said, precipitation is expected to decrease
in coverage and intensity during the late evening hours as forcing
and instability lessen. As for temperatures, another mild night is
in store for much of the area, with even slightly below seasonal
normals for lows given the cold front passage earlier in the day.

Monday - Friday: For next week, some active weather is expected as a
mostly stagnant pattern remains in place. Flow will remain
northwesterly through most of this period, with flow becoming more
northerly near the end as a ridge of high pressure across the
western US drifts to the east. Confidence remains high to very high
(>60%) in this overall pattern evolution given continued and strong
support from ensemble model guidance. While weak waves and
orographics will allow for modest forcing, no major forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, and given that, drier conditions are
expected for the region. With that said though, given the lack of
any moisture scouring systems, daily isolated to scattered afternoon
rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along the mountains,
with some spillage of precipitation across the valleys and plains.
Looking at temperatures, Monday will be the coolest day, and even
slightly below seasonal values thanks to the cold front passage
from Sunday. Then for the rest of the week, a slow warm up is
anticipated, with near seasonal temperatures by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An easterly surge will push into the I-25 corridor affecting
KCOS and KPUB at the start of the TAF issuance gusts to around
30 kts will be possible before a cold front shifts winds from
the north after 08-09z at both terminals. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible as the boundary hits the mountains,
though chances are too low for more than VCSH but trends will be
monitored. Winds will shift out of the east on Sunday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms likely at both
terminals. Will carry VCTS for now given timing uncertainties,
but it is likely that both terminals will need a tempo or
prevailing group for TSRA into Sunday evening. A few storms
could become strong to severe with GR along with +TSRA and gusty
winds up to 50 kts if a stronger storm directly impacts the
terminals.

KALS will remain VFR with northwest winds picking up after 19z.
Winds will shift from the east during the early evening as
convective outflow boundaries over the Sangres spread eastward
into the San Luis Valley. It is possible winds could gust to
near 30 kts though confidence is low for now.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT