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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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971 FXUS65 KPUB 082347 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 547 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon over the San Luis Valley and southeast mountains. Seasonably cool for the plains. - Daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along and immediately around the mountains for the long term period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Updated to adjust precipitation chances across the higher terrain this evening. Radar has been rather sparse in coverage, with the strongest activity out over the souther San Juan Range. More isolated activity continues near Monarch Pass, and over the southern Sangre de Cristo Range. Thunderstorm activity should dissipate through 9 PM. Mozley && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The upper-level trough will continue marching east aloft today, allowing for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to form across our southeast mountains and parts of the San Luis Valley this afternoon. The CAMs are a bit spread on CAPE, ranging between about 200 and 1200 J/kg this afternoon at the base of the valley. Limiting factors here may be moisture and/or mixing, which makes sense based on how little coverage the HRRR has (it tends to overmix moisture out). Shear, on the other hand, looks decent, with models showing around 25-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Looking at forecast soundings, showers and storms appear high-based, with gusty winds and hail being our biggest chances for impacts. HREF members do hoist scattered coverage by late-afternoon, mainly across the mountains, but with a few storms over the southern part of the valley as well. Overall, model consensus does call for a few stronger to possibly severe storms. For the eastern plains, most models show little to no precip coverage, though a rogue shower or two could drift off of the mountains later in the day today. For Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm, with high temperatures climbing into the high-80s to low-90s across the plains. The eastern plains will remain mostly dry with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains during the afternoon hours. A few storms could drift onto the plains later in the evening as the retreating trough axis moves further east, but at this time chances are somewhat low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Tuesday Night - Sunday: The long term forecast is holding steady, with afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, and warming temperatures anticipated. A ridge of high pressure will slowly drift towards the area, and eventually become stationary during the later part of this period. Confidence continues to remain high to very high (>60%) given consistency in model guidance and strong agreement/support within ensemble model guidance. Flow will remain northwesterly through much of the week as the high pressure treks east, and then become northerly to northeasterly as the high pressure sits over the Colorado and Utah region. Given the increasing subsidence with this feature, drier conditions are expected for most, though moisture will remain in place given the lack of any major synoptic waves. With that said though, while forcing will be weaker with this pattern, modest orographic lift, aided by diurnal upsloping, and the moisture still in place, will allow for daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms to blossom along and immediately around the mountains. Any precipitation present is expected to dissipate during the evening hours as instability lessens and orographics aided by upslope lessens. As for temperatures a warming trend is anticipated. For much of the week, temperatures will warm to around seasonal values, and then likely increase to above seasonal values over the weekend as the ridge sits over the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds be fairly light and east- southeasterly at all three TAF sites through a majority of the period, with some scattered mid-level cloud cover moving in late in the period. Some very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, mainly along the higher terrain near KPUB and KALS, with best chances for showers and storms in the vicinity of either station coming in after 21Z tomorrow afternoon. Main risks with storms tomorrow will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and lightning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR