782
FXUS65 KPUB 201801
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1201 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler this weekend!

- Showers and thunderstorms coverage increases today and Sunday
  across much of the region.

- Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms are
  expected for Sunday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Currently...radar continues to show light rain along the New Mexico
border early this morning, as a cold front and embedded upper wave
tracks south across the Plains.  This shower activity should clear
south into New Mexico before daybreak.  Winds across the Plains are
generally northeasterly, with dewpoints continuing to remain in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.  Temperatures are generally in the 50s to
lower 60s across the region.

Today...an upper high will continue to remain across the Great
Basin, forcing northerly flow across Colorado.  The next embedded
upper wave will arrive by this afternoon, with another round of
showers and thunderstorms for the area.  Low level flow will remain
northeasterly into this afternoon which will keep moisture in place
across the Plains.  Modest SBCAPE values ranging from 600 j/kg along
the Eastern Mountains to near 1500 j/kg near the Kansas border
should be sufficient to produce thunderstorm activity this
afternoon.  Shear looks to remain weak, likely limiting any severe
weather potential this afternoon.  That being said, a couple of
strong to low end severe storms may be possible out east near the
Kansas border this afternoon and evening where CAPE values are
highest.  Otherwise, expect convective initiation late morning over
the higher terrain, which will spread south-southeast into the I-25
corridor this afternoon.  PWAT values remain high, in excess of an
inch, and storms will be efficient rain producers.  Localized flash
flooding over urban areas, burn scars and flood prone areas may be
possible.  Stronger storms out east could produce wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph and hail near one inch in diameter.  Temperatures
this afternoon will be cooler, with upper 70s to mid 80s across the
region.

Tonight...not much change expected in the upper pattern, with upper
high sitting over the Great Basin.  The embedded wave responsible
for the afternoon convection will track south during the evening
hours, with most activity shifting south and east through midnight.
Model guidance in agreement that the next upper wave will be
tracking south across Wyoming into northern Colorado by Sunday
morning.  This is a more robust disturbance embedded in the flow.
Low level flow on the Plains will remain northerly to northeasterly
helping to keep moisture in place.  A multitude of high-res guidance
develops another round of showers and thunderstorms late tonight,
initially over the Palmer Divide, and tracking south along the I-25
corridor through day break.  Overnight lows will continue to be on
the mild side with elevated dewpoints keeping mid 50s to lower 60s
temperatures in place. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Sunday - Friday: For the upcoming week, a relatively consistent
pattern will be in place. Northerly to northwesterly flow will
prevail as a trough remains across the central/eastern US and
ridging remains across the western US. Confidence remains high (60-
79%) in this pattern given continued agreement between ensemble
model guidance. While no major forcing is anticipated with this
pattern, shortwaves embedded within the flow, and orographics aided
by diurnal upsloping, will bring periods of heightened forcing.
These upticks in forcing, along with moisture still in place, will
allow for daily isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. The greatest coverage of showers and storms will
remain along and immediately around the mountains. With that all
said though, the most widespread showers and storms for the region
is expected Sunday, as a more compact wave, and cold front, help
bring additional/more focused forcing. The greatest hazards from
any more organized thunderstorms throughout this period will be
gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and lightning. Heading into the
evening hours each day though, any precipitation present is
anticipated to lessen in coverage and intensity as instability and
forcing lower. As for temperatures, the first few days of the period
will be below seasonal values thanks to the aforementioned cold
front passage on Sunday. Then for the mid to later part of next
week, temperatures warm back to seasonal values as the ridge slides
back east some again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions likely to persist over the next 24 hours
at COS, PUB and ALS. Moisture remains in place, with showers
and a few storms already developing over the higher terrain.
Showers and storms to move south to southeast through the
afternoon and evening, with good chances that all 3 terminals
seeing affects of storms through the early evening, with gusty
outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall associated with these
storms. Models continue to suggest an embedded short wave across
the Intermountain West at this time, will continue to translate
southeast across the Central Rockies through early tomorrow
morning. This will keep the potential for showers and storms
across the area through the overnight hours, with storms
possibly developing unusually early (14Z-16Z) at the terminals
Sunday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW