300
FXUS65 KPUB 171756
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1156 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
  afternoon into this evening for areas along and east of the
  I-25 corridor.

- Cooler and wetter weather is expected to persist through the
  end of the work week and into this weekend, with daily chances
  for showers and thunderstorms persisting, especially over and
  near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The bulk of the precipitation from last evening has dissipated or
pushed well east of the area this morning. Some lingering isolated
light showers in place across the eastern plains, however, don`t
anticipate much from these showers as this diminishing trends
continues during the early morning hours. Surface trough and front
remain situated across the southeast plains this morning, while
weaker/baggy 700mb flow is in place. Some potential for a returning
upslope flow this morning that could support some additional cloud
cover along with additional isolated light showers. If this trend
were to occur, think the flow will be rather weak with limited
moisture this morning and would expect at most scattered cloud cover
over and near the southeast mountains. The front and cooler air in
place will support cooler temps today, but with minimal movement and
generally clear skies, will see temps warm well into the upper 80s
for most of the plains and mid/upper 70s to lower 80s
elsewhere.

By midday into the early afternoon, will see northwest flow aloft
usher in additional energy across the region, as veering and
strengthening low/mid level flow occurs over and just lee of the
mountains. This deeper and stronger upslope flow along with
strengthening large scale ascent will support shower and
thunderstorm development over and near the higher terrain during
this time. Generally weaker instability in place will keep storm
intensity limited during this time, though gusty winds up to 50 mph
along with brief heavy downpours will be possible with any stronger
development. By mid to late afternoon, similar setup along with
strengthening low to mid level flow will support continued shower
and thunderstorm development over and near the higher terrain.
Should see development spread across the I-25 corridor and into the
southeast plains during this time, especially as the upper level
support spreads east and with moist advection occurring across the
plains. This will help with increasing instability across the
plains, with the more unstable environment occurring further east
across the plains.

MLCAPE values during this time and moving into the early evening are
expected to generally be up to 500 j/kg with pockets of 500-1000
j/kg across the I-25 corridor, and 1000-1500 j/kg across the
southeast plains. Southeast low level flow and northwest flow aloft
should support at least marginal shear, with values of 30-40 kt
possible over much of the area today. This all should support the
development of widely scattered strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening. Think the main risk across the I-25 corridor
will be primarily wind gusts up to 60 mph and brief heavy downpours,
while wind gusts up to around 60 mph, hail up to the size of half
dollars, and heavy downpours will be possible further to the east.
The tornado threat looks to be low today, however, some guidance is
showing strengthening and backing low level flow later this
afternoon and evening. This will need to be closely monitored, as it
would support increasing helicity and the possibility for a tornado
or two. Once again, the threat of tornadoes is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Thursday and Friday..

By Thursday, models build in upper-level ridging centered over the
Four Corners Region. This will mean northwesterly flow aloft for our
area on Thursday and northerly flow aloft on Friday, with moist
southerly flow at the surface, as subtropical moisture circulates
around the upper high. This pattern will make for continued chances
for widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
across our area both days, especially over the higher terrain. The
influx of moisture will also mean increased chances for excessive
rainfall both days as well. The WPC currently has a large portion of
our forecast area outlined in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
for both days, along with a slight risk over the southern mountains
both days as well. EPS and GEFS ensemble members are showing PWAT
anomalies of around 120-160% of normal for both days, with highest
values over the higher terrain. Area burn scars and other locations
susceptible to flash flooding such as the Chalk Cliffs and areas
that see multiple days in a row of heavy rainfall will need to be
monitored closely for flooding late this week. Given the ample
amount of moisture available, severe thunderstorms will possible on
our plains both days as well, especially on Thursday. Models are not
in much agreement about whether there will much shear to work with,
but it does seem likely that we will be plenty moist and unstable
enough to support at least a marginal risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms on our plains on Thursday, which the SPC has us
outlooked for already. Temperatures are expected to be around 2 to 4
degrees below normal for most locations on Thursday, and right
around normal on Friday. This will mean highs in the mid 80s to low
90s for the plains on Thursday, with low 80s for mountain valleys,
and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s on the plains for Friday, with
mid 80s for mountain valleys.

Saturday Onwards..

Models bring a cold front across the area sometime late Friday or
early Saturday, bringing in another cool down for our weekend and
into the beginning of next week, along with reinvigorated chances
for daily showers and thunderstorms. The upper high pushes off
further to our west over the Great Basin through this period,
leading to almost due northerly flow aloft for our region through
the middle of next week. Passing shortwave energy through the ridge
will keep our precip chances alive, and we`ll likely continue to see
chances for excessive rainfall as we head into this weekend and the
beginning of next week as well. Temperatures look to be around 5 to
10 degrees below normal for most locations throughout this period,
with the furthest below normal readings coming in over our far
eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Weak west to northwest flow remains in place across the region,
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms already developing
over the higher terrain. Currently expecting storms to move
across all the terminals through the late afternoon and early
evening (22Z-02Z), bringing gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph,
and brief heavy rainfall. Clouds are slow to clear through the
overnight night hours, with VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the rest of the taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW