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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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896 FXUS65 KPUB 190546 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1146 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - More daily thunderstorms expected with a few strong to severe possible through this evening and again on Friday. - Unseasonably cool and unsettled this weekend into early next week. - Some drying, especially across southeast Colorado, for the middle to end of next week, with temperatures warming back to near seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Overnight convection has spread higher dew points westward across southern CO with mid 50 to lower 60 readings across much of the southeast plains and 40s across the high country. Northerly flow continues across the area along the eastern periphery of the upper high with weak perturbations within the flow. Overall forcing looks a little less than yesterday which appears to limit thunderstorm coverage a bit, especially across the plains into the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours, drifting off into the adjacent plains according to HREF members as thunderstorms and outflows spread off the mountains and encounter higher CAPE and increasing shear. The Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms still looks on target with high res models suggesting El Paso county area may have the greatest coverage again today. HREF mean CAPE is higher than yesterday with values approaching 1500-1750 near the eastern border, so storm strengths should increase as storms move eastward into more favorable CAPE and better shear regimes. Hail up to ping pong balls and outflow winds up to 65 mph will be possible through the evening. Friday`s pattern looks similar to today though with better forcing as a shortwave descends the eastern periphery of the upper high through the afternoon and evening. Recycled monsoon moisture within the upper high across CO doesn`t really change all that much though values do come down a bit in the afternoon along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains as low level moisture mixes out. Afternoon CAPE decreases with HREF knocking back mean CAPE values to 500-1000 J/kg with highest values near the eastern border. Storms initiate over the mountains again and develop along a frontal boundary which will drop southward into northern portions of the southeast plains in the late afternoon and evening. With soundings showing more inverted V profiles on Friday, gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph and locally heavy rain will be the primary storm risks, however some severe criteria hail will be possible farther east across northeast portions of the plains where CAPE and shear are a little stronger and a convective cluster develops and spreads southward through the evening along the frontal boundary. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Friday, but still at or below climo for most areas. -KT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Latest ensemble and operational model data supports another cool and fairly unsettled pattern developing across the region through the weekend, as upper level ridging remains progged to elongate north and west across the Great Basin and Intermountain West, leading to unseasonably cool north to northwest flow aloft in place across the Rockies. While available moisture does thin out within the northerly flow aloft, there will continue to be bouts of increased uvv and moisture, especially across Eastern Colorado, with passing waves translating down the backside of the upper ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains. These waves will bring cold fronts and surges in available moisture, with continued daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher terrain, throughout the weekend and into early next week. The strongest cold front on Saturday night could keep showers and storms ongoing across the region into Sunday morning, with Sunday looking to one of the coolest days of the next week with highs well below late July levels in the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains. The upper high again looks to slowly slide south and east by the middle of next week and could be sliding into western Colorado by the end of next week. This will shift upper level flow to east to northeast across Eastern Colorado, with weak southerly flow developing across Western Colorado. Main signal is slowly warming conditions across the region and back to seasonal levels by the end of next week. A drier and more subsident airmass will move across Eastern Colorado, while Western Colorado will see a slow increase in available moisture once again, keeping the best chances of daily storms along and west of the ContDvd for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Similar pattern persists over the next 24 hrs as an upper disturbance crosses the north central plains of the US, and the ridge aloft shifts slightly to the west. Expect predominant VFR conditions across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUb and KALS. VCSH returns to all three TAFs between 18z-20z Friday, with brief periods of moderate to heavy rain through the afternoon and evening producing intermittent MVFR conditions at terminals. Higher terrain and mt passes will experience intermittent IFR conditions 18z-03z due to lowering clouds and visibility restrictions. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOORE