Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
631 FXUS66 KPQR 121900 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1200 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Overall, not much change in the overall pattern into next week. West to southwest flow aloft will maintain seasonal conditions across the interior, while stays bit cooler along the coast where low clouds and onshore flow will persist. Will see another warm up next week, with inland temperatures climbing back into the lower to middle 90s. && .DISCUSSION...Clouds along the coast will slowly erode as high pressure intensifies through the afternoon. Winds will kick up again today, with gusts 20 to 25 mph along the Oregon coast for the afternoon, and 15 to 22 mph in the Willamette Valley. Not much change in this pattern through early next week, with areas of low clouds at night/morning along the coast, and mostly clear inland. Temperatures inland will remain warm, peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Probabilities for temperatures reaching 90 or greater within the Willamette Valley rise again this weekend, with 60-80% Saturday, 50-60% on Sunday and 30-40% on Monday. In general, temperatures are not expected to vary widely from day to day for the next week. That said, models still showing a boost in warmth towards middle of next week, with highs into the middle 90s. Outside of temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry into early next week. Models show high pressure center over south Nevada will slowly shift to the Four Corners region through Sunday. At the same time, a cutoff low off the southern California coast will drift northward. As such, will see bit of monsoonal moisture working its way north from the Sierras into far south Oregon. At this point, most ensemble guidance suggests the moisture and thunderstorm chances will remain over south central and southeast Oregon. Will keep the Lane County Cascades dry, but maintain some cumulus buildups for that area. Does appear that will see bit warmer temperatures next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance has been trending warmer, but still, afternoon highs expected to be lower to middle 90s for the interior lowlands of the Willamette Valley, Columbia Gorge, and lower valleys of the Cascade foothills. && .AVIATION...High pressure over the area will maintain VFR conditions under clear skies for inland terminals through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds under 10 kt inland and 10-15 kt along the coast this morning, expected to strengthen to gusts of 20-25 kt inland and 25-30 kt along the coast by 17-19Z Friday. Marine stratus has returned early this morning, bringing IFR/MVFR CIGs along the coast, but should clear and improve to VFR by 19-20Z Friday. Again, just like yesterday, expect MVFR/IFR conditions to return along the coast around 03-06Z Saturday. There is a 10-20% chance that the marine stratus will filter into the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area via the Lower Columbia River Valley between 12-17Z Friday. As of 10Z Friday, the stratus has pushed eastward as far as KKLS. With improved confidence due to a cooler morning, expect some stratus (with MVFR conditions) around KPDX and KTTD for an hour or two between 12-17Z Friday. Otherwise, another day of VFR conditions for inland terminals. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds through the TAF period under clear skies. Northwest winds through the period, with winds strengthening again in the afternoon, with gusts up to around 20 kt by 22-23Z Friday. -JH && .MARINE... High pressure will maintain gusty northerly winds through the rest of the week. Expect northerly winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for most marine zones through Saturday evening, with the strongest gusts over the outer waters (10-60 NM). Seas will be wind-driven and choppy at times, building to 6-8 ft throughout the day and into tomorrow. There is high confidence for small craft conditions through Saturday evening, so the Small Craft Advisory has been extended for most marine zones through 5 PM Saturday. The exception would be the waters out 10 NM between Cape Shoalwater, WA and Cape Falcon, OR and the Columbia River Bar. We could still see choppy, small craft seas at times, but winds in these zones won`t be strong enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. -JH/Alviz && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ252-253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland