Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
725 FXZS60 NSTU 290104 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 204 PM SST Fri Jun 28 2024 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show open cell cumuli clouds migrating west. Also showing on the satellite imageries is a trough oriented northwest to southeast, and running through the Fiji Islands. Models are showing this trough line moving closer to and over the territory by Saturday afternoon, as a high pressure system to the southwest migrates eastward. The trough will likely increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. As the high pressure system migrates eastward, easterlies will turn southeast and increase as it potentially peaks at a strong breeze. As the high pressure system continues on its path, embedded showers will also move with the trade wind. Therefore, expect scattered showers with possible thunderstorms and moderate easterlies for tonight through Saturday afternoon, becoming numerous showers with fresh easterlies for Saturday night through Monday. Moderate to strong trades with embedded showers will move over the islands on Monday night through at least Wednesday night. Models are showing the aforementioned high pressure exiting the region to the east by late Thursday, thus resulting in a decrease in winds for the end of the forecast period. && .Marine... Seas have been lingering around 7 to 9 feet throughout the day. Model data is showing these heights remaining tonight through at least Monday night. By Tuesday, an east-southeast swell will move into the area, keeping seas in the advisory thresholds for small crafts. Combined seas (wind-driven and swell) are expected to reach 9 to 12 feet with short periods, less than 10 seconds on Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period. This scenario aligns with the increasing trades and easterlies expected to peak at a strong breeze (25 knots) for this time frame. In these conditions, seas will likely become choppy and rough as they will more wind-driven. Thus, the advisories for high surfs and small crafts remains in effect for the rest of the week into the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen