Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
305 FXUS65 KPIH 030841 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 241 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. Upper level trough moving through areas to the north will be close enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms in the northeast highlands for this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, this trough keeps temperatures cool and increases the wind. This will bring wind over the American Falls Reservoir to Lake Wind Advisory thresholds for today and tonight. These conditions are not expected to return on Thu as the upper level ridge continues to build and protect the forecast area from any strong wind aloft that would bring stronger wind. It should still be breezy but not windy during the afternoon. Temperatures warm only very slightly from Today to Thu afternoon. Messick .LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. Long term period will be hot and dry. Upper level ridge along the Pacific coast on Friday will gradually push east through the weekend with the ridge axis centered over Idaho next Wednesday. Will have some strong northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend with breezy conditions especially on Saturday with 10 to 20 mph sustained winds expected. Highs near normal Friday in the 70s mountains to mid to upper 80s valleys. Will begin to see low elevation highs in the 90s by Saturday with the hottest conditions next week Monday into Wednesday as the upper ridge pushes east. Expect many low elevation high temperatures to push toward 100 degrees by next Wednesday. GK && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure dominating the pattern with a weak trough moving through western MT enough to trigger some Targhee NF area afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The trough is also enough to bring gusts up to Red Flag thresholds in the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley, along with the south central foothills, combined with very low humidity in the eastern Magic Valley and the south central foothills. With all the fire activity there has been, and with wind and afternoon humidity reaching Red Flag Warning thresholds, a Red Flag Warning was issued for this part of the South Idaho Dispatch area. The ridge will build even stronger over the northwestern states and the threat of thunderstorms goes away for the rest of the week, apparently. With no upper level trough close enough, the wind is not expected to be impactful. Messick && .AVIATION... Main impact today will be wind increases and 10 to 15 knot sustained winds at all sites this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 knots at PIH and BYI. Will have mainly clear skies through Thursday night. after 17z. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ425-427. && $$