Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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942 FXUS66 KPDT 041717 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1017 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with winds generally 10 knots or less and clear skies. Goatley/87 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...A ridge of high pressure continues building offshore of the region shown from the water vapor imagery. This supports a warming trend of high temps in the 90s to lower 100s across the forecast area with temps 5-20 degrees above normal into next week. Observed from the NBM, probability of exceeding 100 degrees for Friday is broadly 20- 50% around the Columbia Basin and the eastern Columbia River Gorge, but locally 60-80% for central OR. Given the incoming heat wave and low relative humidity, this will facilitate Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the lower elevations and elevated concerns for fire weather potential due to critically dry environment. And due to these conditions, heat advisories and warnings have been issued starting Friday into next week. Winds will be light across the forecast area with occasional wind gusts between 15-25mph around Kittitas valley (80-100% confidence). Feaster/97 LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...Sensible weather concerns through the extended forecast will revolve around a prolonged heatwave that will bring Moderate to Major HeatRisk across many lower elevation and mountain valley locations. An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main synoptic feature impacting the region through the latter half of next week. The ridge axis will start offshore western CONUS on Saturday, then gradually push east over the region where it will be centered along the 114W Meridian by Thursday. With the ridge overhead, very dry conditions will develop area-wide, while very hot temperatures develop and linger through Thursday. Winds will also generally be light with locally breezy conditions developing in the afternoons through late next week. High temperatures across most lower elevations will generally be between 100 to 105 degrees (confidence 90-100%), while temperatures between 105 to 110 will develop across the Columbia Basin (confidence 75-90%). Ensembles also indicate that temperatures between 95 to 100 degrees will develop in some mountain valley locations across the Cascade east slopes, Blues, and Wallowas by early next week(confidence 75-85%). Lawhorn/82 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 90 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 91 60 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 93 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 91 59 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 94 59 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 88 59 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 91 52 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 86 53 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 52 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 97 65 104 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-507-508-510. Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ050. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ505- 511. WA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-026>029-521. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ523. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for WAZ690. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...87